The Guerrero governor race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because Morena’s dominance in the state makes its eventual nominee the presumptive favorite, yet no single candidate has consolidated support ahead of internal selection and the 2027 ballot. Beatriz Mojica Morga, a sitting senator on leave, holds the narrowest edge at 46 percent implied probability on the strength of internal surveys, while Esthela Damián Peralta, who resigned a federal post to pursue the nomination, trails at 20 percent. Lower-probability contenders reflect limited name recognition and party infrastructure. With no major recent endorsements, scandals, or polling shifts reported, the even split captures uncertainty over primary dynamics and potential late consolidation within the ruling party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBeatriz Mojica Morga 45.1%
Esthela Damián Peralta 19.5%
Mario Moreno Arcos 4.4%
Guadalupe Eguiluz 4.2%
$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Beatriz Mojica Morga
45%
Esthela Damián Peralta
20%
Mario Moreno Arcos
4%
Guadalupe Eguiluz
4%
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
4%
Manuel Añorve Baños
4%
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
3%
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
2%
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
2%
Javier Saldaña Almazán
1%
Iván Hernández Díaz
1%
Erika Lorena Lührs
1%
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
1%
Alberto López Rosas
1%
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
1%
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
1%
Héctor Astudillo Flores
1%
Yesenia Galarza Castro
1%
Julián López Galeana
1%
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
<1%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
<1%
Carlos Reyes Torres
<1%
Abelina López Rodríguez
<1%
Félix Salgado Macedonio
<1%
Rubén Cayetano García
<1%
Genaro Vázquez Flores
<1%
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
<1%
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
<1%
Beatriz Mojica Morga 45.1%
Esthela Damián Peralta 19.5%
Mario Moreno Arcos 4.4%
Guadalupe Eguiluz 4.2%
$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Beatriz Mojica Morga
45%
Esthela Damián Peralta
20%
Mario Moreno Arcos
4%
Guadalupe Eguiluz
4%
Gabriela Bernal Reséndiz
4%
Manuel Añorve Baños
4%
Marcial Rodríguez Saldaña
3%
Pablo Amílcar Sandoval Ballesteros
2%
Eloy Salmerón Díaz
2%
Javier Saldaña Almazán
1%
Iván Hernández Díaz
1%
Erika Lorena Lührs
1%
Rogelio Ortega Martínez
1%
Alberto López Rosas
1%
Zeferino Gómez Valdovinos
1%
Gustavo Alarcón Herrera
1%
Héctor Astudillo Flores
1%
Yesenia Galarza Castro
1%
Julián López Galeana
1%
Evodio Velázquez Aguirre
<1%
Karen Castrejón Trujillo
<1%
Carlos Reyes Torres
<1%
Abelina López Rodríguez
<1%
Félix Salgado Macedonio
<1%
Rubén Cayetano García
<1%
Genaro Vázquez Flores
<1%
Norma Otilia Hernández Martínez
<1%
Alejandro Bravo Abarca
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:28 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Guerrero gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Guerrero and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Guerrero and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Guerrero governor race remains tightly contested in trader pricing because Morena’s dominance in the state makes its eventual nominee the presumptive favorite, yet no single candidate has consolidated support ahead of internal selection and the 2027 ballot. Beatriz Mojica Morga, a sitting senator on leave, holds the narrowest edge at 46 percent implied probability on the strength of internal surveys, while Esthela Damián Peralta, who resigned a federal post to pursue the nomination, trails at 20 percent. Lower-probability contenders reflect limited name recognition and party infrastructure. With no major recent endorsements, scandals, or polling shifts reported, the even split captures uncertainty over primary dynamics and potential late consolidation within the ruling party.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions