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FL-11 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-11 Republican Primary Winner

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner

Joe Strada 100.0%

Carey Baker <1%

Ivette Palomo <1%

Nizam Razack <1%

Polymarket

$37,980 Vol.

Joe Strada 100.0%

Carey Baker <1%

Ivette Palomo <1%

Nizam Razack <1%

Polymarket

$37,980 Vol.

Carey Baker

$11,596 Vol.

No

Ivette Palomo

$573 Vol.

No

Nizam Razack

$858 Vol.

No

Joe Strada

$17,437 Vol.

Yes

Tim Wilkins

$7,516 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Strada secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 11th Congressional District following the August 18 primary and subsequent machine recount, which confirmed his narrow victory over former Lake County Property Appraiser Carey Baker by 393 votes out of roughly 82,000 cast. The open seat, vacated by retiring Representative Daniel Webster, drew a five-candidate field in the solidly Republican district spanning Sumter County and parts of Lake and Orange counties. Strada’s commanding position in trader consensus stems from his $5 million in self-funded loans, multimillion-dollar advertising campaign, and endorsements from figures including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Representative Jim Jordan, and several Florida sheriffs. Other candidates, including Tim Wilkins, Nizam Razack, and Ivette Palomo, split the remaining vote but trailed significantly. While certification is complete, any unforeseen legal challenge to the results or nominee substitution before the November general election could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain unlikely given the finalized tally.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$37,980
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Joe Strada secured the Republican nomination for Florida’s 11th Congressional District following the August 18 primary and subsequent machine recount, which confirmed his narrow victory over former Lake County Property Appraiser Carey Baker by 393 votes out of roughly 82,000 cast. The open seat, vacated by retiring Representative Daniel Webster, drew a five-candidate field in the solidly Republican district spanning Sumter County and parts of Lake and Orange counties. Strada’s commanding position in trader consensus stems from his $5 million in self-funded loans, multimillion-dollar advertising campaign, and endorsements from figures including House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Representative Jim Jordan, and several Florida sheriffs. Other candidates, including Tim Wilkins, Nizam Razack, and Ivette Palomo, split the remaining vote but trailed significantly. While certification is complete, any unforeseen legal challenge to the results or nominee substitution before the November general election could theoretically alter the outcome, though such developments remain unlikely given the finalized tally.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$37,980
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:26 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joe Strada" at 100%, followed by "Carey Baker" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $38K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" is "Joe Strada" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carey Baker" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-11 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.