Democratic incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in California’s 44th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in registration advantages and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus around a 98.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the district’s South Los Angeles and Harbor-area composition along with Barragán’s incumbency and fundraising edge. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or major unforeseen disruption such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-44 House Election Winner
CA-44 House Election Winner
$46,509 Vol.
$46,509 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
2%
$46,509 Vol.
$46,509 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,619 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$24,890 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in California’s 44th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in registration advantages and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus around a 98.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the district’s South Los Angeles and Harbor-area composition along with Barragán’s incumbency and fundraising edge. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or major unforeseen disruption such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$46,509End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in California’s 44th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in registration advantages and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus around a 98.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the district’s South Los Angeles and Harbor-area composition along with Barragán’s incumbency and fundraising edge. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or major unforeseen disruption such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,509End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Nanette Barragán advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 77 percent of the vote against Republican Genevieve Angel, setting up a November 3 general election matchup in California’s 44th congressional district. The seat’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in registration advantages and consistent past margins exceeding 40 points, underpins trader consensus around a 98.5 percent probability for the Democratic nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, citing the district’s South Los Angeles and Harbor-area composition along with Barragán’s incumbency and fundraising edge. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing or major unforeseen disruption such as a late scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, neither of which has materialized in available reporting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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