Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná voter intentions for the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 13–18 points over President Lula in late-July and mid-August surveys, including 44% to 31% in Real Time Big Data fieldwork. The state’s conservative electorate in Brazil’s South, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s prior strong performance there and his endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party nominee, underpins the position. Lula faces elevated rejection rates above 50% in local samples. Trader consensus at 94% reflects these patterns, though outcomes could shift with free television airtime beginning August 28, scheduled debates, or late-campaign developments altering turnout among undecided or independent voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Paraná
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,865 Vol.
94%
Lula
$264 Vol.
5%
Renan Santos
$267 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$349 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$366 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$366 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$422 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$366 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$367 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$456 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$371 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$409 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$331 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná voter intentions for the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 13–18 points over President Lula in late-July and mid-August surveys, including 44% to 31% in Real Time Big Data fieldwork. The state’s conservative electorate in Brazil’s South, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s prior strong performance there and his endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party nominee, underpins the position. Lula faces elevated rejection rates above 50% in local samples. Trader consensus at 94% reflects these patterns, though outcomes could shift with free television airtime beginning August 28, scheduled debates, or late-campaign developments altering turnout among undecided or independent voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,200End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná voter intentions for the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 13–18 points over President Lula in late-July and mid-August surveys, including 44% to 31% in Real Time Big Data fieldwork. The state’s conservative electorate in Brazil’s South, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s prior strong performance there and his endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party nominee, underpins the position. Lula faces elevated rejection rates above 50% in local samples. Trader consensus at 94% reflects these patterns, though outcomes could shift with free television airtime beginning August 28, scheduled debates, or late-campaign developments altering turnout among undecided or independent voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,200End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Paraná voter intentions for the October 4 first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 13–18 points over President Lula in late-July and mid-August surveys, including 44% to 31% in Real Time Big Data fieldwork. The state’s conservative electorate in Brazil’s South, combined with Jair Bolsonaro’s prior strong performance there and his endorsement of his son as the Liberal Party nominee, underpins the position. Lula faces elevated rejection rates above 50% in local samples. Trader consensus at 94% reflects these patterns, though outcomes could shift with free television airtime beginning August 28, scheduled debates, or late-campaign developments altering turnout among undecided or independent voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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