Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA readings, with the 12-month rate through mid-August 2026 falling to 4.24% and entering the central bank’s 3% target band plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, underpins the 47% implied probability on the 5.00-5.49% range. Focus survey medians have stabilized at 5.02% for full-year 2026 after multiple downward revisions, aligning closely with Copom’s 5.1% projection and reflecting partial dissipation of earlier El Niño-driven food price pressures alongside resilient but cooling economic activity. Ongoing Selic reductions, now at 14% with expectations near 13.75% by year-end, further support the clustered probabilities in the mid-5% band, while services inflation and fiscal stimulus remain key upside risks to monitor ahead of September policy and data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 26.9%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.7%
$100,192 Vol.
$100,192 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
<1%
3.50-3.99%
<1%
4.00-4.49%
4%
4.50-4.99%
27%
5.00-5.49%
47%
5.50-5.99%
22%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
<1%
5.00-5.49% 47.0%
4.50-4.99% 26.9%
5.50-5.99% 22.4%
4.00-4.49% 3.7%
$100,192 Vol.
$100,192 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,844 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,904 Vol.
<1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,307 Vol.
<1%
4.00-4.49%
$14,405 Vol.
4%
4.50-4.99%
$16,917 Vol.
27%
5.00-5.49%
$14,864 Vol.
47%
5.50-5.99%
$10,450 Vol.
22%
6.00-6.49%
$6,785 Vol.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,801 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,917 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA readings, with the 12-month rate through mid-August 2026 falling to 4.24% and entering the central bank’s 3% target band plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, underpins the 47% implied probability on the 5.00-5.49% range. Focus survey medians have stabilized at 5.02% for full-year 2026 after multiple downward revisions, aligning closely with Copom’s 5.1% projection and reflecting partial dissipation of earlier El Niño-driven food price pressures alongside resilient but cooling economic activity. Ongoing Selic reductions, now at 14% with expectations near 13.75% by year-end, further support the clustered probabilities in the mid-5% band, while services inflation and fiscal stimulus remain key upside risks to monitor ahead of September policy and data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$100,192End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA readings, with the 12-month rate through mid-August 2026 falling to 4.24% and entering the central bank’s 3% target band plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, underpins the 47% implied probability on the 5.00-5.49% range. Focus survey medians have stabilized at 5.02% for full-year 2026 after multiple downward revisions, aligning closely with Copom’s 5.1% projection and reflecting partial dissipation of earlier El Niño-driven food price pressures alongside resilient but cooling economic activity. Ongoing Selic reductions, now at 14% with expectations near 13.75% by year-end, further support the clustered probabilities in the mid-5% band, while services inflation and fiscal stimulus remain key upside risks to monitor ahead of September policy and data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$100,192End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent moderation in Brazil’s IPCA readings, with the 12-month rate through mid-August 2026 falling to 4.24% and entering the central bank’s 3% target band plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, underpins the 47% implied probability on the 5.00-5.49% range. Focus survey medians have stabilized at 5.02% for full-year 2026 after multiple downward revisions, aligning closely with Copom’s 5.1% projection and reflecting partial dissipation of earlier El Niño-driven food price pressures alongside resilient but cooling economic activity. Ongoing Selic reductions, now at 14% with expectations near 13.75% by year-end, further support the clustered probabilities in the mid-5% band, while services inflation and fiscal stimulus remain key upside risks to monitor ahead of September policy and data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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