The Bank of Israel’s decision to hold its 3.5% policy rate unchanged reflects the July 2026 25-basis-point cut that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022, combined with inflation remaining near the 1.5–1.9% midpoint of the 1–3% target range and one-year expectations anchored at 1.5%. A strong shekel, reduced geopolitical risk premium, and 4% GDP growth forecast for 2026 have eased immediate pressure for further accommodation after two consecutive reductions. Market-implied odds of 91.5% for no change on the September 1 announcement embed this data-dependent pause, while the modest 8.5% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut hinges on any softer-than-expected CPI or labor readings. The next catalysts include August inflation and employment releases that could shift the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 92%
25 bps cut 10%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$102,069 Vol.
$102,069 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
10%
No Change
92%
25 bps hike
<1%
50+ bps hike
<1%
No Change 92%
25 bps cut 10%
50+ bps cut <1%
25 bps hike <1%
$102,069 Vol.
$102,069 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
50+ bps cut
$6,624 Vol.
<1%
25 bps cut
$27,774 Vol.
10%
No Change
$59,580 Vol.
92%
25 bps hike
$5,348 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps hike
$2,743 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Israel’s decision to hold its 3.5% policy rate unchanged reflects the July 2026 25-basis-point cut that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022, combined with inflation remaining near the 1.5–1.9% midpoint of the 1–3% target range and one-year expectations anchored at 1.5%. A strong shekel, reduced geopolitical risk premium, and 4% GDP growth forecast for 2026 have eased immediate pressure for further accommodation after two consecutive reductions. Market-implied odds of 91.5% for no change on the September 1 announcement embed this data-dependent pause, while the modest 8.5% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut hinges on any softer-than-expected CPI or labor readings. The next catalysts include August inflation and employment releases that could shift the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$102,069End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Bank of Israel’s decision to hold its 3.5% policy rate unchanged reflects the July 2026 25-basis-point cut that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022, combined with inflation remaining near the 1.5–1.9% midpoint of the 1–3% target range and one-year expectations anchored at 1.5%. A strong shekel, reduced geopolitical risk premium, and 4% GDP growth forecast for 2026 have eased immediate pressure for further accommodation after two consecutive reductions. Market-implied odds of 91.5% for no change on the September 1 announcement embed this data-dependent pause, while the modest 8.5% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut hinges on any softer-than-expected CPI or labor readings. The next catalysts include August inflation and employment releases that could shift the implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank of Israel Interest Rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Israel Monetary Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Israel, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 31, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Israel calendar (https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Israel resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$102,069End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Israel’s decision to hold its 3.5% policy rate unchanged reflects the July 2026 25-basis-point cut that brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since 2022, combined with inflation remaining near the 1.5–1.9% midpoint of the 1–3% target range and one-year expectations anchored at 1.5%. A strong shekel, reduced geopolitical risk premium, and 4% GDP growth forecast for 2026 have eased immediate pressure for further accommodation after two consecutive reductions. Market-implied odds of 91.5% for no change on the September 1 announcement embed this data-dependent pause, while the modest 8.5% probability of an additional 25-basis-point cut hinges on any softer-than-expected CPI or labor readings. The next catalysts include August inflation and employment releases that could shift the implied rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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