**Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting, leaving the overnight rate at 2.25%.** This reflects the central bank’s July 15 decision to hold steady for the sixth consecutive time and the market’s assessment that recent data do not warrant immediate adjustment. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven largely by gasoline and travel-tour prices tied to earlier geopolitical tensions; core measures remained near or below 2%, and the Bank has signaled willingness to look through transitory energy-driven spikes. Economic growth is showing modest improvement after earlier weakness, while labor-market and housing indicators remain soft, keeping the policy stance appropriate in the Bank’s assessment. Major bank forecasts and overnight-index-swap pricing align on a hold, with any tightening viewed as likely only in 2027 once excess supply is absorbed and inflation dynamics clarify. A clear challenge to the consensus would require either a sharp upside surprise in August CPI (due after the meeting) or rapid escalation in oil prices that broadens into sustained core inflation pressures before September 2. Absent such developments, the current data path supports the strong market-implied odds of unchanged policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 99.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$59,742 Vol.
$59,742 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase
<1%
No Change
100%
25 bps decrease
<1%
50+ bps decrease
<1%
No Change 99.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$59,742 Vol.
$59,742 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
50+ bps increase
$6,176 Vol.
<1%
25 bps increase
$9,697 Vol.
<1%
No Change
$34,291 Vol.
100%
25 bps decrease
$5,813 Vol.
<1%
50+ bps decrease
$3,766 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting, leaving the overnight rate at 2.25%.** This reflects the central bank’s July 15 decision to hold steady for the sixth consecutive time and the market’s assessment that recent data do not warrant immediate adjustment.
Headline CPI rose to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven largely by gasoline and travel-tour prices tied to earlier geopolitical tensions; core measures remained near or below 2%, and the Bank has signaled willingness to look through transitory energy-driven spikes. Economic growth is showing modest improvement after earlier weakness, while labor-market and housing indicators remain soft, keeping the policy stance appropriate in the Bank’s assessment. Major bank forecasts and overnight-index-swap pricing align on a hold, with any tightening viewed as likely only in 2027 once excess supply is absorbed and inflation dynamics clarify.
A clear challenge to the consensus would require either a sharp upside surprise in August CPI (due after the meeting) or rapid escalation in oil prices that broadens into sustained core inflation pressures before September 2. Absent such developments, the current data path supports the strong market-implied odds of unchanged policy.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$59,742End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.**Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting, leaving the overnight rate at 2.25%.** This reflects the central bank’s July 15 decision to hold steady for the sixth consecutive time and the market’s assessment that recent data do not warrant immediate adjustment.
Headline CPI rose to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven largely by gasoline and travel-tour prices tied to earlier geopolitical tensions; core measures remained near or below 2%, and the Bank has signaled willingness to look through transitory energy-driven spikes. Economic growth is showing modest improvement after earlier weakness, while labor-market and housing indicators remain soft, keeping the policy stance appropriate in the Bank’s assessment. Major bank forecasts and overnight-index-swap pricing align on a hold, with any tightening viewed as likely only in 2027 once excess supply is absorbed and inflation dynamics clarify.
A clear challenge to the consensus would require either a sharp upside surprise in August CPI (due after the meeting) or rapid escalation in oil prices that broadens into sustained core inflation pressures before September 2. Absent such developments, the current data path supports the strong market-implied odds of unchanged policy.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.
Volume
$59,742End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada’s September 2, 2026 meeting, leaving the overnight rate at 2.25%.** This reflects the central bank’s July 15 decision to hold steady for the sixth consecutive time and the market’s assessment that recent data do not warrant immediate adjustment. Headline CPI rose to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, driven largely by gasoline and travel-tour prices tied to earlier geopolitical tensions; core measures remained near or below 2%, and the Bank has signaled willingness to look through transitory energy-driven spikes. Economic growth is showing modest improvement after earlier weakness, while labor-market and housing indicators remain soft, keeping the policy stance appropriate in the Bank’s assessment. Major bank forecasts and overnight-index-swap pricing align on a hold, with any tightening viewed as likely only in 2027 once excess supply is absorbed and inflation dynamics clarify. A clear challenge to the consensus would require either a sharp upside surprise in August CPI (due after the meeting) or rapid escalation in oil prices that broadens into sustained core inflation pressures before September 2. Absent such developments, the current data path supports the strong market-implied odds of unchanged policy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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