**Continued disinflation, fiscal discipline, and a managed crawling-band exchange-rate regime under President Milei are anchoring trader expectations for moderate depreciation through year-end.** As of late August 2026 the official wholesale USD/ARS rate trades near 1,512, up only modestly year-to-date amid monthly inflation that has fallen to 1.9% in June—the lowest reading in ten months—and annual inflation running around 33%. Central-bank surveys (REM) and consensus forecasts (LatinFocus) project the rate at roughly 1,648–1,652 by December, implying 10–14% nominal depreciation for the remainder of the year, comfortably below expected 2026 inflation of ~29–30%. The BCRA’s reserve-accumulation program (more than $13 billion purchased year-to-date) and the inflation-linked crawl of the intervention band (ceiling near 1,873) reinforce this path, while positive real interest rates and a primary fiscal surplus limit pass-through. Recent stability in the blue-dollar and MEP gaps near 2–6% further signals contained pressures. With roughly four months remaining, the market-implied probabilities—led by sub-1,600 (43.5%) and 1,600–1,699 (32%) buckets—reflect trader confidence that these policy anchors will keep the official rate from accelerating sharply, barring any sudden reversal in inflation momentum or reserve flows.