**Persistent inflation differentials and Argentina’s managed crawling-band regime continue to anchor trader expectations for further peso weakening by year-end.** As of late August 2026 the official USD/ARS rate sits near 1,510, and market-implied odds heavily favor levels above 1,600 (65.5 % probability), reflecting the view that monthly inflation near 2 % and the central bank’s policy of widening the band at the prior two-month inflation rate will drive roughly 1–2 % nominal depreciation per month through December. Recent data show meaningful disinflation—monthly CPI has fallen from double digits in late 2023 to around 1.9–2.1 % by mid-2026—yet the annual rate remains elevated near 30 %, keeping real interest rates under pressure and sustaining private-sector demand for dollars in the second half of the year. The Milei administration’s shift to a more flexible band, combined with reserve-rebuilding needs ahead of debt obligations, has reduced the scope for aggressive peso support, while forecasts from several macro models cluster around 1,500–1,680 by December. Key swing factors include the pace of further inflation convergence, seasonal export inflows, and any acceleration in capital-account liberalization. With only four months until resolution, the market’s pricing embeds continued modest depreciation rather than a sudden stabilization or reversal.