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Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

icon for Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?
Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

98% chance
Polymarket

$46,388 Vol.

98% chance
Polymarket

$46,388 Vol.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz's official confirmation on August 20 that he will defend his U.S. Open title after a four-month absence from a right wrist injury has driven the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97.6% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome. The world No. 2 has been cleared for the hard-court Grand Slam starting August 30, posting practice footage and receiving a mixed doubles wild card alongside Serena Williams, while remaining on the official entry list. His return targets the final major of the season after skipping the French Open, Wimbledon, and recent ATP events in Toronto and Cincinnati to prioritize full fitness. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a late injury setback during final preparations or a medical withdrawal before his first match, though his recent activity and public statements indicate strong readiness for the main draw.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,388
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz's official confirmation on August 20 that he will defend his U.S. Open title after a four-month absence from a right wrist injury has driven the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97.6% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome. The world No. 2 has been cleared for the hard-court Grand Slam starting August 30, posting practice footage and receiving a mixed doubles wild card alongside Serena Williams, while remaining on the official entry list. His return targets the final major of the season after skipping the French Open, Wimbledon, and recent ATP events in Toronto and Cincinnati to prioritize full fitness. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a late injury setback during final preparations or a medical withdrawal before his first match, though his recent activity and public statements indicate strong readiness for the main draw.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,388
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 98% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 98¢, the market collectively assigns a 98% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" has generated $46.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is 98% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 98% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.