Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeted October Nasdaq listing have anchored trader consensus at a 94.6% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. Rapid revenue growth toward $65 billion annualized and a near-$1 trillion valuation have accelerated underwriting activity with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. In contrast, OpenAI’s own confidential filing has been followed by internal signals favoring a 2027 debut, including CFO remarks that the company “will be a public company in 2027 or sooner” if conditions allow. Key swing factors include any SEC review delays, market volatility that could push Anthropic’s timeline, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI’s process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
95% chance
$319,586 Vol.
$319,586 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$319,586 Vol.
$319,586 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeted October Nasdaq listing have anchored trader consensus at a 94.6% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. Rapid revenue growth toward $65 billion annualized and a near-$1 trillion valuation have accelerated underwriting activity with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. In contrast, OpenAI’s own confidential filing has been followed by internal signals favoring a 2027 debut, including CFO remarks that the company “will be a public company in 2027 or sooner” if conditions allow. Key swing factors include any SEC review delays, market volatility that could push Anthropic’s timeline, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI’s process.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$319,586End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeted October Nasdaq listing have anchored trader consensus at a 94.6% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. Rapid revenue growth toward $65 billion annualized and a near-$1 trillion valuation have accelerated underwriting activity with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. In contrast, OpenAI’s own confidential filing has been followed by internal signals favoring a 2027 debut, including CFO remarks that the company “will be a public company in 2027 or sooner” if conditions allow. Key swing factors include any SEC review delays, market volatility that could push Anthropic’s timeline, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI’s process.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$319,586End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and its targeted October Nasdaq listing have anchored trader consensus at a 94.6% implied probability that it reaches public markets ahead of OpenAI. Rapid revenue growth toward $65 billion annualized and a near-$1 trillion valuation have accelerated underwriting activity with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley. In contrast, OpenAI’s own confidential filing has been followed by internal signals favoring a 2027 debut, including CFO remarks that the company “will be a public company in 2027 or sooner” if conditions allow. Key swing factors include any SEC review delays, market volatility that could push Anthropic’s timeline, or an unexpected acceleration in OpenAI’s process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions