The U.S. nuclear testing moratorium has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive tests conducted. Trader consensus reflects very low implied probabilities due to repeated administration clarifications after the October 2025 presidential directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged low-yield activities; senior officials, including the Secretary of Energy, framed this as subcritical experiments or systems checks rather than nuclear-yield detonations. The Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program continues to certify arsenal reliability without explosive tests, reinforced by annual lab assessments and congressional oversight. Nevada state opposition, international diplomatic pressure, and the absence of any technical requirement from NNSA or STRATCOM further anchor skepticism about a near-term full test. Scheduled budget reviews and NPT-related discussions through late 2026 represent the main potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$794,139 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
4%
$794,139 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,403 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$75,925 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear testing moratorium has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive tests conducted. Trader consensus reflects very low implied probabilities due to repeated administration clarifications after the October 2025 presidential directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged low-yield activities; senior officials, including the Secretary of Energy, framed this as subcritical experiments or systems checks rather than nuclear-yield detonations. The Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program continues to certify arsenal reliability without explosive tests, reinforced by annual lab assessments and congressional oversight. Nevada state opposition, international diplomatic pressure, and the absence of any technical requirement from NNSA or STRATCOM further anchor skepticism about a near-term full test. Scheduled budget reviews and NPT-related discussions through late 2026 represent the main potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. nuclear testing moratorium has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive tests conducted. Trader consensus reflects very low implied probabilities due to repeated administration clarifications after the October 2025 presidential directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged low-yield activities; senior officials, including the Secretary of Energy, framed this as subcritical experiments or systems checks rather than nuclear-yield detonations. The Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program continues to certify arsenal reliability without explosive tests, reinforced by annual lab assessments and congressional oversight. Nevada state opposition, international diplomatic pressure, and the absence of any technical requirement from NNSA or STRATCOM further anchor skepticism about a near-term full test. Scheduled budget reviews and NPT-related discussions through late 2026 represent the main potential catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$794,139End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. nuclear testing moratorium has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness but no explosive tests conducted. Trader consensus reflects very low implied probabilities due to repeated administration clarifications after the October 2025 presidential directive to resume testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged low-yield activities; senior officials, including the Secretary of Energy, framed this as subcritical experiments or systems checks rather than nuclear-yield detonations. The Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program continues to certify arsenal reliability without explosive tests, reinforced by annual lab assessments and congressional oversight. Nevada state opposition, international diplomatic pressure, and the absence of any technical requirement from NNSA or STRATCOM further anchor skepticism about a near-term full test. Scheduled budget reviews and NPT-related discussions through late 2026 represent the main potential catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions