Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 330 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required under Article 175 to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 needed for immediate enactment. Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and AKP officials in mid-2026 outlined internal drafting work and a target of 2026-2027 for a new civilian charter, yet no draft has reached the floor and cross-party negotiations remain stalled. Recent legislative activity has instead centered on electoral-law adjustments proposed by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and passage of a PKK-related solidarity measure in August 2026, while Erdogan’s potential third-term path appears more likely to rely on an Article 116 early-election vote than a comprehensive rewrite. These structural arithmetic and coalition constraints explain the 93.5% implied probability that no meaningful constitutional advance will occur before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 330 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required under Article 175 to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 needed for immediate enactment. Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and AKP officials in mid-2026 outlined internal drafting work and a target of 2026-2027 for a new civilian charter, yet no draft has reached the floor and cross-party negotiations remain stalled. Recent legislative activity has instead centered on electoral-law adjustments proposed by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and passage of a PKK-related solidarity measure in August 2026, while Erdogan’s potential third-term path appears more likely to rely on an Article 116 early-election vote than a comprehensive rewrite. These structural arithmetic and coalition constraints explain the 93.5% implied probability that no meaningful constitutional advance will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 330 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required under Article 175 to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 needed for immediate enactment. Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and AKP officials in mid-2026 outlined internal drafting work and a target of 2026-2027 for a new civilian charter, yet no draft has reached the floor and cross-party negotiations remain stalled. Recent legislative activity has instead centered on electoral-law adjustments proposed by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and passage of a PKK-related solidarity measure in August 2026, while Erdogan’s potential third-term path appears more likely to rely on an Article 116 early-election vote than a comprehensive rewrite. These structural arithmetic and coalition constraints explain the 93.5% implied probability that no meaningful constitutional advance will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,283End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP alliance holds roughly 330 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360-vote threshold required under Article 175 to advance a constitutional amendment to referendum or the 400 needed for immediate enactment. Official statements from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş and AKP officials in mid-2026 outlined internal drafting work and a target of 2026-2027 for a new civilian charter, yet no draft has reached the floor and cross-party negotiations remain stalled. Recent legislative activity has instead centered on electoral-law adjustments proposed by MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli and passage of a PKK-related solidarity measure in August 2026, while Erdogan’s potential third-term path appears more likely to rely on an Article 116 early-election vote than a comprehensive rewrite. These structural arithmetic and coalition constraints explain the 93.5% implied probability that no meaningful constitutional advance will occur before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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