SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory and elevated revenue multiples drive the near-even split in trader sentiment for its end-October 2026 market cap, with sub-$1 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion buckets each implied near 49%. Following the June 2026 listing at roughly $1.77 trillion that raised $75 billion, the stock initially exceeded $2 trillion before retreating toward $1.4 trillion amid heavy capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and a multiple exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship milestones, and any lockup-related selling ahead of October, while analyst fair-value estimates cluster around $1.25 trillion. Aggregated trader capital reflects uncertainty over whether revenue expansion can outpace dilution and spending by resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$1.00T 49%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.50-$1.75T 27%
$2.00-$2.25T 27%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
49%
$1.00-$1.25T
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
26%
$1.50-$1.75T
27%
$1.75-$2.00T
24%
$2.00-$2.25T
27%
$2.25T+
25%
<$1.00T 49%
$1.00-$1.25T 48%
$1.50-$1.75T 27%
$2.00-$2.25T 27%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
<$1.00T
$0 Vol.
49%
$1.00-$1.25T
$0 Vol.
48%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
26%
$1.50-$1.75T
$0 Vol.
27%
$1.75-$2.00T
$0 Vol.
24%
$2.00-$2.25T
$0 Vol.
27%
$2.25T+
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory and elevated revenue multiples drive the near-even split in trader sentiment for its end-October 2026 market cap, with sub-$1 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion buckets each implied near 49%. Following the June 2026 listing at roughly $1.77 trillion that raised $75 billion, the stock initially exceeded $2 trillion before retreating toward $1.4 trillion amid heavy capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and a multiple exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship milestones, and any lockup-related selling ahead of October, while analyst fair-value estimates cluster around $1.25 trillion. Aggregated trader capital reflects uncertainty over whether revenue expansion can outpace dilution and spending by resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory and elevated revenue multiples drive the near-even split in trader sentiment for its end-October 2026 market cap, with sub-$1 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion buckets each implied near 49%. Following the June 2026 listing at roughly $1.77 trillion that raised $75 billion, the stock initially exceeded $2 trillion before retreating toward $1.4 trillion amid heavy capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and a multiple exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship milestones, and any lockup-related selling ahead of October, while analyst fair-value estimates cluster around $1.25 trillion. Aggregated trader capital reflects uncertainty over whether revenue expansion can outpace dilution and spending by resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory and elevated revenue multiples drive the near-even split in trader sentiment for its end-October 2026 market cap, with sub-$1 trillion and $1–1.25 trillion buckets each implied near 49%. Following the June 2026 listing at roughly $1.77 trillion that raised $75 billion, the stock initially exceeded $2 trillion before retreating toward $1.4 trillion amid heavy capital expenditures, negative free cash flow, and a multiple exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Key swing factors include Starlink subscriber growth, Starship milestones, and any lockup-related selling ahead of October, while analyst fair-value estimates cluster around $1.25 trillion. Aggregated trader capital reflects uncertainty over whether revenue expansion can outpace dilution and spending by resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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