SpaceX’s post-IPO trading range near $1.9 trillion—with shares around $135–140 as of August 24—reflects competing views on valuation sustainability amid heavy multiples exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Recent quarterly results showed 92% revenue growth to $7.8 billion, driven by Starlink connectivity and AI segment expansion, yet persistent losses from AI investments and capital expenditures continue to weigh on profitability. Lock-up expirations releasing substantial insider shares introduce near-term supply pressure, while analyst estimates diverge sharply on the AI contribution’s earnings trajectory versus core space operations. These dynamics underpin the tightly contested Polymarket bins, with trader capital pricing in uncertainty around execution milestones and broader equity sentiment through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1.75-$2.00T 29%
<$1.00T 27%
$1.25-$1.50T 27%
$2.00-$2.25T 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$1.00T
27%
$1.00-$1.25T
12%
$1.25-$1.50T
27%
$1.50-$1.75T
19%
$1.75-$2.00T
29%
$2.00-$2.25T
25%
$2.25T+
1%
$1.75-$2.00T 29%
<$1.00T 27%
$1.25-$1.50T 27%
$2.00-$2.25T 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<$1.00T
$10 Vol.
27%
$1.00-$1.25T
$320 Vol.
12%
$1.25-$1.50T
$0 Vol.
27%
$1.50-$1.75T
$2,115 Vol.
19%
$1.75-$2.00T
$84 Vol.
29%
$2.00-$2.25T
$1,008 Vol.
25%
$2.25T+
$332 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX’s post-IPO trading range near $1.9 trillion—with shares around $135–140 as of August 24—reflects competing views on valuation sustainability amid heavy multiples exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Recent quarterly results showed 92% revenue growth to $7.8 billion, driven by Starlink connectivity and AI segment expansion, yet persistent losses from AI investments and capital expenditures continue to weigh on profitability. Lock-up expirations releasing substantial insider shares introduce near-term supply pressure, while analyst estimates diverge sharply on the AI contribution’s earnings trajectory versus core space operations. These dynamics underpin the tightly contested Polymarket bins, with trader capital pricing in uncertainty around execution milestones and broader equity sentiment through month-end.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,868End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX’s post-IPO trading range near $1.9 trillion—with shares around $135–140 as of August 24—reflects competing views on valuation sustainability amid heavy multiples exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Recent quarterly results showed 92% revenue growth to $7.8 billion, driven by Starlink connectivity and AI segment expansion, yet persistent losses from AI investments and capital expenditures continue to weigh on profitability. Lock-up expirations releasing substantial insider shares introduce near-term supply pressure, while analyst estimates diverge sharply on the AI contribution’s earnings trajectory versus core space operations. These dynamics underpin the tightly contested Polymarket bins, with trader capital pricing in uncertainty around execution milestones and broader equity sentiment through month-end.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$3,868End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX’s post-IPO trading range near $1.9 trillion—with shares around $135–140 as of August 24—reflects competing views on valuation sustainability amid heavy multiples exceeding 100 times trailing sales. Recent quarterly results showed 92% revenue growth to $7.8 billion, driven by Starlink connectivity and AI segment expansion, yet persistent losses from AI investments and capital expenditures continue to weigh on profitability. Lock-up expirations releasing substantial insider shares introduce near-term supply pressure, while analyst estimates diverge sharply on the AI contribution’s earnings trajectory versus core space operations. These dynamics underpin the tightly contested Polymarket bins, with trader capital pricing in uncertainty around execution milestones and broader equity sentiment through month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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