The Supreme Court’s June 30, 2026, grant of certiorari in challenges to AR-15-style rifle bans in Cook County, Illinois, and Connecticut has driven the current trader consensus around a 56.5% chance of invalidation. The 6-3 conservative majority has steadily broadened Second Amendment protections since the 2022 Bruen decision, with four justices previously signaling readiness to address assault-weapon restrictions that lower courts had upheld. Oral arguments are scheduled for the October term, with a ruling expected by summer 2027, leaving room for Chief Justice Roberts or Justice Barrett to shape the outcome. This timing and the court’s recent gun-rights rulings create a closely balanced market that prices both the strong textual and historical arguments favoring “common use” firearms and the remaining uncertainty over the final vote.