The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout brackets in the Pennsylvania governor election reflect high uncertainty this far from November 3, with no dominant recent catalysts to anchor expectations. Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a consistent double-digit lead over Republican Stacy Garrity in polling aggregates, following unopposed May primaries that produced higher Democratic participation. Historical off-year gubernatorial turnout has ranged widely depending on national conditions, candidate enthusiasm, and campaign intensity, while voter registration trends and early indicators provide limited guidance months ahead. Developments that could shift the distribution include changes in race competitiveness, major national political events, or late-cycle mobilization efforts that alter voter engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPennsylvania Governor Election: Turnout
Pennsylvania Governor Election: Turnout
4.5M-5M 36%
6.5M+ 36%
4M-4.5M 34%
5M-5.5M 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4M
31%
4M-4.5M
34%
4.5M-5M
36%
5M-5.5M
32%
5.5M-6M
29%
6M-6.5M
28%
6.5M+
36%
4.5M-5M 36%
6.5M+ 36%
4M-4.5M 34%
5M-5.5M 32%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<4M
$16 Vol.
31%
4M-4.5M
$16 Vol.
34%
4.5M-5M
$16 Vol.
36%
5M-5.5M
$16 Vol.
32%
5.5M-6M
$16 Vol.
29%
6M-6.5M
$16 Vol.
28%
6.5M+
$16 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout brackets in the Pennsylvania governor election reflect high uncertainty this far from November 3, with no dominant recent catalysts to anchor expectations. Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a consistent double-digit lead over Republican Stacy Garrity in polling aggregates, following unopposed May primaries that produced higher Democratic participation. Historical off-year gubernatorial turnout has ranged widely depending on national conditions, candidate enthusiasm, and campaign intensity, while voter registration trends and early indicators provide limited guidance months ahead. Developments that could shift the distribution include changes in race competitiveness, major national political events, or late-cycle mobilization efforts that alter voter engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$112End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout brackets in the Pennsylvania governor election reflect high uncertainty this far from November 3, with no dominant recent catalysts to anchor expectations. Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a consistent double-digit lead over Republican Stacy Garrity in polling aggregates, following unopposed May primaries that produced higher Democratic participation. Historical off-year gubernatorial turnout has ranged widely depending on national conditions, candidate enthusiasm, and campaign intensity, while voter registration trends and early indicators provide limited guidance months ahead. Developments that could shift the distribution include changes in race competitiveness, major national political events, or late-cycle mobilization efforts that alter voter engagement.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$112End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across multiple turnout brackets in the Pennsylvania governor election reflect high uncertainty this far from November 3, with no dominant recent catalysts to anchor expectations. Incumbent Democrat Josh Shapiro holds a consistent double-digit lead over Republican Stacy Garrity in polling aggregates, following unopposed May primaries that produced higher Democratic participation. Historical off-year gubernatorial turnout has ranged widely depending on national conditions, candidate enthusiasm, and campaign intensity, while voter registration trends and early indicators provide limited guidance months ahead. Developments that could shift the distribution include changes in race competitiveness, major national political events, or late-cycle mobilization efforts that alter voter engagement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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