**Oregon's all-mail voting system and strong historical midterm participation keep Senate turnout projections tightly clustered between roughly 1.7 million and 2.0 million ballots.** Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting race-specific mobilization. Recent May primary turnout reached a record 1.28 million ballots amid a contentious transportation measure, while past midterm generals have produced 60+% participation rates among registered voters. Concurrent contests, including the governor's race and any late-cycle ballot measures, will influence overall engagement, as will broader national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors without a dominant catalyst yet separating the most probable ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOregon Senate Election: Turnout
Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
<1.5M 33%
2.2M+ 31%
2M-2.1M 30%
1.5M-1.6M 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
33%
1.5M-1.6M
30%
1.6M-1.7M
29%
1.7M-1.8M
27%
1.8M-1.9M
30%
1.9M-2M
27%
2M-2.1M
30%
2.1M-2.2M
30%
2.2M+
31%
<1.5M 33%
2.2M+ 31%
2M-2.1M 30%
1.5M-1.6M 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<1.5M
$0 Vol.
33%
1.5M-1.6M
$0 Vol.
30%
1.6M-1.7M
$0 Vol.
29%
1.7M-1.8M
$0 Vol.
27%
1.8M-1.9M
$0 Vol.
30%
1.9M-2M
$0 Vol.
27%
2M-2.1M
$0 Vol.
30%
2.1M-2.2M
$0 Vol.
30%
2.2M+
$0 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's all-mail voting system and strong historical midterm participation keep Senate turnout projections tightly clustered between roughly 1.7 million and 2.0 million ballots.** Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting race-specific mobilization. Recent May primary turnout reached a record 1.28 million ballots amid a contentious transportation measure, while past midterm generals have produced 60+% participation rates among registered voters. Concurrent contests, including the governor's race and any late-cycle ballot measures, will influence overall engagement, as will broader national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors without a dominant catalyst yet separating the most probable ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's all-mail voting system and strong historical midterm participation keep Senate turnout projections tightly clustered between roughly 1.7 million and 2.0 million ballots.** Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting race-specific mobilization. Recent May primary turnout reached a record 1.28 million ballots amid a contentious transportation measure, while past midterm generals have produced 60+% participation rates among registered voters. Concurrent contests, including the governor's race and any late-cycle ballot measures, will influence overall engagement, as will broader national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors without a dominant catalyst yet separating the most probable ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Oregon's all-mail voting system and strong historical midterm participation keep Senate turnout projections tightly clustered between roughly 1.7 million and 2.0 million ballots.** Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley faces Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters, limiting race-specific mobilization. Recent May primary turnout reached a record 1.28 million ballots amid a contentious transportation measure, while past midterm generals have produced 60+% participation rates among registered voters. Concurrent contests, including the governor's race and any late-cycle ballot measures, will influence overall engagement, as will broader national midterm dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors without a dominant catalyst yet separating the most probable ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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