Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced as the opposing nominee in a district with a consistent Republican tilt exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat on November 3, 2026, reflecting Oklahoma’s partisan composition, Cole’s long tenure since 2003, and the absence of any major polling shifts or campaign developments that would signal a competitive race. An independent candidate has filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include an unforeseen scandal, acute national partisan wave, or significant health or turnout disruption, though none are currently evident in primary results or candidate positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-04 House Election Winner
OK-04 House Election Winner
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$25,389 Vol.
$25,389 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,515 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,874 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced as the opposing nominee in a district with a consistent Republican tilt exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat on November 3, 2026, reflecting Oklahoma’s partisan composition, Cole’s long tenure since 2003, and the absence of any major polling shifts or campaign developments that would signal a competitive race. An independent candidate has filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include an unforeseen scandal, acute national partisan wave, or significant health or turnout disruption, though none are currently evident in primary results or candidate positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,389End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced as the opposing nominee in a district with a consistent Republican tilt exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat on November 3, 2026, reflecting Oklahoma’s partisan composition, Cole’s long tenure since 2003, and the absence of any major polling shifts or campaign developments that would signal a competitive race. An independent candidate has filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include an unforeseen scandal, acute national partisan wave, or significant health or turnout disruption, though none are currently evident in primary results or candidate positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,389End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cole secured renomination in the June 2026 primary with over 70% of the vote against a single challenger, while Democrat Mitchell Jacob advanced as the opposing nominee in a district with a consistent Republican tilt exceeding 30 points in recent cycles. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5% implied probability of holding the seat on November 3, 2026, reflecting Oklahoma’s partisan composition, Cole’s long tenure since 2003, and the absence of any major polling shifts or campaign developments that would signal a competitive race. An independent candidate has filed but shows limited viability. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include an unforeseen scandal, acute national partisan wave, or significant health or turnout disruption, though none are currently evident in primary results or candidate positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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