Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat carries an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, and Carey won his May 5 primary unopposed while Democratic nominee Don Leonard prevailed in a close primary. Recent internal polling shows Carey ahead, including surveys placing him at 45-40 in June and 41-37 in August. Carey maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2 million cash on hand compared with Leonard’s roughly $250,000. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report and other forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-15 House Election Winner
OH-15 House Election Winner
$10,583 Vol.
$10,583 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
19%
$10,583 Vol.
$10,583 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$4,609 Vol.
81%
Democratic Party
$5,974 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat carries an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, and Carey won his May 5 primary unopposed while Democratic nominee Don Leonard prevailed in a close primary. Recent internal polling shows Carey ahead, including surveys placing him at 45-40 in June and 41-37 in August. Carey maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2 million cash on hand compared with Leonard’s roughly $250,000. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report and other forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$10,583End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat carries an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, and Carey won his May 5 primary unopposed while Democratic nominee Don Leonard prevailed in a close primary. Recent internal polling shows Carey ahead, including surveys placing him at 45-40 in June and 41-37 in August. Carey maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2 million cash on hand compared with Leonard’s roughly $250,000. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report and other forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,583End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Carey holds a commanding position in Ohio’s 15th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The seat carries an R+5 Partisan Voter Index, and Carey won his May 5 primary unopposed while Democratic nominee Don Leonard prevailed in a close primary. Recent internal polling shows Carey ahead, including surveys placing him at 45-40 in June and 41-37 in August. Carey maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with more than $2 million cash on hand compared with Leonard’s roughly $250,000. Race ratings from the Cook Political Report and other forecasters classify the contest as Solid or Likely Republican, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the market prices. No major developments have altered the competitive landscape since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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