Klay Thompson's recent buyout from the Dallas Mavericks and subsequent two-year agreement with the Miami Heat, cleared through waivers in late August 2026, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus toward Miami at 98.4% implied probability. The five-time All-Star and sharpshooter joins a Heat roster seeking veteran perimeter spacing alongside established stars, aligning with official reports from league sources confirming the deal's completion. Most other teams sit at 0.1-1.1% as the market prices in the finalized transaction. Rare scenarios that could shift resolution include an unexpected league ruling on the contract, a last-minute player opt-out, or undisclosed medical concerns emerging before the season, though current developments show no such developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMiami Heat 97.4%
Los Angeles Lakers 1.1%
Utah Jazz <1%
Memphis Grizzlies <1%
Miami Heat
97%
Los Angeles Lakers
1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Miami Heat 97.4%
Los Angeles Lakers 1.1%
Utah Jazz <1%
Memphis Grizzlies <1%
Miami Heat
97%
Los Angeles Lakers
1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
If Klay Thompson does not officially join a new team by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Dallas Mavericks”.
If Klay Thompson joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If Klay Thompson is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
An official trade announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Dallas Mavericks and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Klay Thompson does not officially join a new team by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Dallas Mavericks”.
If Klay Thompson joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If Klay Thompson is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
An official trade announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the Dallas Mavericks and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Klay Thompson's recent buyout from the Dallas Mavericks and subsequent two-year agreement with the Miami Heat, cleared through waivers in late August 2026, has driven the overwhelming trader consensus toward Miami at 98.4% implied probability. The five-time All-Star and sharpshooter joins a Heat roster seeking veteran perimeter spacing alongside established stars, aligning with official reports from league sources confirming the deal's completion. Most other teams sit at 0.1-1.1% as the market prices in the finalized transaction. Rare scenarios that could shift resolution include an unexpected league ruling on the contract, a last-minute player opt-out, or undisclosed medical concerns emerging before the season, though current developments show no such developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions