**Bennie Thompson's long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district's D+11 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold.** Thompson secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with 86.4% of the vote, while Republican Ron Eller advanced from a narrow primary contest. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's demographics and voting patterns in the Mississippi Delta and Jackson area have sustained this advantage across multiple cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong Republican national environment boosting turnout, though historical margins suggest limited scope for an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-02 House Election Winner
MS-02 House Election Winner
$36,491 Vol.
$36,491 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
8%
$36,491 Vol.
$36,491 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,474 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$15,017 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bennie Thompson's long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district's D+11 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold.** Thompson secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with 86.4% of the vote, while Republican Ron Eller advanced from a narrow primary contest. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's demographics and voting patterns in the Mississippi Delta and Jackson area have sustained this advantage across multiple cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong Republican national environment boosting turnout, though historical margins suggest limited scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$36,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bennie Thompson's long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district's D+11 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold.** Thompson secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with 86.4% of the vote, while Republican Ron Eller advanced from a narrow primary contest. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's demographics and voting patterns in the Mississippi Delta and Jackson area have sustained this advantage across multiple cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong Republican national environment boosting turnout, though historical margins suggest limited scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,491End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Bennie Thompson's long incumbency since 1993, combined with the district's D+11 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpins the 92.5% trader consensus for a Democratic hold.** Thompson secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with 86.4% of the vote, while Republican Ron Eller advanced from a narrow primary contest. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's demographics and voting patterns in the Mississippi Delta and Jackson area have sustained this advantage across multiple cycles. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong Republican national environment boosting turnout, though historical margins suggest limited scope for an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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