Kyle Schwarber's commanding lead in the 2026 MLB home run race, with 38-39 long balls for the Phillies as of late August, underpins his 56% implied probability among traders. His consistent power output, including becoming the first player to 30 homers earlier in the season, has created separation from the pack. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson sit tied at 36, with Alvarez's strong on-base skills and Olson's steady production for Atlanta keeping them in the 10-15% range each. Junior Caminero's 35 homers for Tampa Bay reflect his rapid ascent as a young power threat, while Ben Rice trails slightly behind. Remaining schedule strength, health, and late-season at-bats will determine whether the current gap holds or narrows in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKyle Schwarber 53%
Matt Olson 16.7%
Yordan Alvarez 15.1%
Junior Caminero 10.7%
$3,143,332 Vol.
$3,143,332 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
53%
Matt Olson
14%
Yordan Alvarez
15%
Junior Caminero
11%
Ben Rice
10%
Munetaka Murakami
2%
James Wood
1%
Elly De La Cruz
<1%
Mike Trout
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
<1%
Sal Stewart
<1%
Jordan Walker
<1%
Brandon Lowe
<1%
CJ Abrams
<1%
Juan Soto
<1%
Pete Alonso
<1%
Rafael Devers
<1%
Aaron Judge
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
<1%
Nick Kurtz
<1%
George Springer
<1%
Shea Langeliers
<1%
Cal Raleigh
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
<1%
Manny Machado
<1%
Kyle Schwarber 53%
Matt Olson 16.7%
Yordan Alvarez 15.1%
Junior Caminero 10.7%
$3,143,332 Vol.
$3,143,332 Vol.
Oct 10, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
$29,012 Vol.
53%
Matt Olson
$2,850 Vol.
14%
Yordan Alvarez
$10,866 Vol.
15%
Junior Caminero
$3,010 Vol.
11%
Ben Rice
$1,488 Vol.
10%
Munetaka Murakami
$7,826 Vol.
2%
James Wood
$2,554 Vol.
1%
Elly De La Cruz
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
Mike Trout
$1,748,316 Vol.
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
$1,285 Vol.
<1%
Sal Stewart
$650 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Walker
$606 Vol.
<1%
Brandon Lowe
$469,800 Vol.
<1%
CJ Abrams
$203,669 Vol.
<1%
Juan Soto
$648,241 Vol.
<1%
Pete Alonso
$410 Vol.
<1%
Rafael Devers
$631 Vol.
<1%
Aaron Judge
$4,680 Vol.
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
$922 Vol.
<1%
Nick Kurtz
$1,488 Vol.
<1%
George Springer
$508 Vol.
<1%
Shea Langeliers
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
Cal Raleigh
$772 Vol.
<1%
Giancarlo Stanton
$664 Vol.
<1%
Manny Machado
$547 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber's commanding lead in the 2026 MLB home run race, with 38-39 long balls for the Phillies as of late August, underpins his 56% implied probability among traders. His consistent power output, including becoming the first player to 30 homers earlier in the season, has created separation from the pack. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson sit tied at 36, with Alvarez's strong on-base skills and Olson's steady production for Atlanta keeping them in the 10-15% range each. Junior Caminero's 35 homers for Tampa Bay reflect his rapid ascent as a young power threat, while Ben Rice trails slightly behind. Remaining schedule strength, health, and late-season at-bats will determine whether the current gap holds or narrows in the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Volume
$3,143,332End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber's commanding lead in the 2026 MLB home run race, with 38-39 long balls for the Phillies as of late August, underpins his 56% implied probability among traders. His consistent power output, including becoming the first player to 30 homers earlier in the season, has created separation from the pack. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson sit tied at 36, with Alvarez's strong on-base skills and Olson's steady production for Atlanta keeping them in the 10-15% range each. Junior Caminero's 35 homers for Tampa Bay reflect his rapid ascent as a young power threat, while Ben Rice trails slightly behind. Remaining schedule strength, health, and late-season at-bats will determine whether the current gap holds or narrows in the final stretch.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,143,332End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kyle Schwarber's commanding lead in the 2026 MLB home run race, with 38-39 long balls for the Phillies as of late August, underpins his 56% implied probability among traders. His consistent power output, including becoming the first player to 30 homers earlier in the season, has created separation from the pack. Yordan Alvarez and Matt Olson sit tied at 36, with Alvarez's strong on-base skills and Olson's steady production for Atlanta keeping them in the 10-15% range each. Junior Caminero's 35 homers for Tampa Bay reflect his rapid ascent as a young power threat, while Ben Rice trails slightly behind. Remaining schedule strength, health, and late-season at-bats will determine whether the current gap holds or narrows in the final stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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