The tight clustering of implied probabilities among the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox stems from their close AL East standings race in late August 2026, with the Rays at 77-53 atop the division, the Yankees just three games back at 74-56, and the Red Sox six games out at 71-59. Strong recent form keeps multiple contenders viable for the AL pennant, including the Yankees' ability to stay in striking distance despite absences for Aaron Judge and other key contributors. Boston's improved results under interim management have narrowed gaps further, while balanced division play and the potential for wild-card or division outcomes sustain realistic paths for several clubs entering the stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMLB: 2026 American League Champion
MLB: 2026 American League Champion
New York Yankees 26%
Tampa Bay Rays 21.3%
Boston Red Sox 14.2%
Chicago White Sox 9.4%
$4,257,198 Vol.
$4,257,198 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
26%
Tampa Bay Rays
21%
Boston Red Sox
14%
Chicago White Sox
9%
Houston Astros
7%
Seattle Mariners
7%
Texas Rangers
4%
Toronto Blue Jays
4%
Cleveland Guardians
3%
Detroit Tigers
2%
Minnesota Twins
2%
Baltimore Orioles
1%
Los Angeles Angels
<1%
Athletics
<1%
Kansas City Royals
<1%
New York Yankees 26%
Tampa Bay Rays 21.3%
Boston Red Sox 14.2%
Chicago White Sox 9.4%
$4,257,198 Vol.
$4,257,198 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
New York Yankees
$57,974 Vol.
26%
Tampa Bay Rays
$403,738 Vol.
21%
Boston Red Sox
$56,251 Vol.
14%
Chicago White Sox
$252,323 Vol.
9%
Houston Astros
$781,760 Vol.
7%
Seattle Mariners
$37,470 Vol.
7%
Texas Rangers
$27,078 Vol.
4%
Toronto Blue Jays
$153,168 Vol.
4%
Cleveland Guardians
$736,036 Vol.
3%
Detroit Tigers
$117,365 Vol.
2%
Minnesota Twins
$253,394 Vol.
2%
Baltimore Orioles
$67,926 Vol.
1%
Los Angeles Angels
$309,202 Vol.
<1%
Athletics
$155,351 Vol.
<1%
Kansas City Royals
$848,162 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of implied probabilities among the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox stems from their close AL East standings race in late August 2026, with the Rays at 77-53 atop the division, the Yankees just three games back at 74-56, and the Red Sox six games out at 71-59. Strong recent form keeps multiple contenders viable for the AL pennant, including the Yankees' ability to stay in striking distance despite absences for Aaron Judge and other key contributors. Boston's improved results under interim management have narrowed gaps further, while balanced division play and the potential for wild-card or division outcomes sustain realistic paths for several clubs entering the stretch.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
Volume
$4,257,198End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight clustering of implied probabilities among the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox stems from their close AL East standings race in late August 2026, with the Rays at 77-53 atop the division, the Yankees just three games back at 74-56, and the Red Sox six games out at 71-59. Strong recent form keeps multiple contenders viable for the AL pennant, including the Yankees' ability to stay in striking distance despite absences for Aaron Judge and other key contributors. Boston's improved results under interim management have narrowed gaps further, while balanced division play and the potential for wild-card or division outcomes sustain realistic paths for several clubs entering the stretch.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,257,198End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of implied probabilities among the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Boston Red Sox stems from their close AL East standings race in late August 2026, with the Rays at 77-53 atop the division, the Yankees just three games back at 74-56, and the Red Sox six games out at 71-59. Strong recent form keeps multiple contenders viable for the AL pennant, including the Yankees' ability to stay in striking distance despite absences for Aaron Judge and other key contributors. Boston's improved results under interim management have narrowed gaps further, while balanced division play and the potential for wild-card or division outcomes sustain realistic paths for several clubs entering the stretch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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