Steve Scalise’s long incumbency as House Majority Leader anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+20 Partisan Voting Index that delivered him 66.8 percent of the vote in 2024. The jungle primary system on November 3, 2026—with a possible December runoff—further advantages the better-funded Republican slate over Democrat Lauren Jewett, whose campaign confronts limited registration and turnout history in the New Orleans suburbs and surrounding areas. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Republican reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals. A major health event for Scalise, an unforeseen primary disruption, or an unusually strong Democratic surge remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLA-01 House Election Winner
LA-01 House Election Winner
$50,213 Vol.
$50,213 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$50,213 Vol.
$50,213 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,283 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$27,930 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Scalise’s long incumbency as House Majority Leader anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+20 Partisan Voting Index that delivered him 66.8 percent of the vote in 2024. The jungle primary system on November 3, 2026—with a possible December runoff—further advantages the better-funded Republican slate over Democrat Lauren Jewett, whose campaign confronts limited registration and turnout history in the New Orleans suburbs and surrounding areas. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Republican reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals. A major health event for Scalise, an unforeseen primary disruption, or an unusually strong Democratic surge remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$50,213End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Scalise’s long incumbency as House Majority Leader anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+20 Partisan Voting Index that delivered him 66.8 percent of the vote in 2024. The jungle primary system on November 3, 2026—with a possible December runoff—further advantages the better-funded Republican slate over Democrat Lauren Jewett, whose campaign confronts limited registration and turnout history in the New Orleans suburbs and surrounding areas. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Republican reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals. A major health event for Scalise, an unforeseen primary disruption, or an unusually strong Democratic surge remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,213End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Steve Scalise’s long incumbency as House Majority Leader anchors the Republican position in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat with an R+20 Partisan Voting Index that delivered him 66.8 percent of the vote in 2024. The jungle primary system on November 3, 2026—with a possible December runoff—further advantages the better-funded Republican slate over Democrat Lauren Jewett, whose campaign confronts limited registration and turnout history in the New Orleans suburbs and surrounding areas. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent Republican reflects these structural factors and the absence of recent scandals, polling shifts, or national wave signals. A major health event for Scalise, an unforeseen primary disruption, or an unusually strong Democratic surge remain the primary scenarios that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions