Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado holds a clear edge in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Andy Barr, who is instead running for Senate. The district carries an R+7 partisan lean and delivered a 26-point Republican victory in 2024. Recent Democratic-sponsored polls show a tightening contest, with a late-July survey tying Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo at 47 percent each and earlier surveys showing narrow Republican leads or dead heats. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Trader pricing at roughly 75 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district’s structural advantages and historical voting patterns, even as Democratic optimism has grown from polling trends and state-level factors heading into the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKY-06 House Election Winner
KY-06 House Election Winner
$33,635 Vol.
$33,635 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
75%
Democratic Party
27%
$33,635 Vol.
$33,635 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$14,395 Vol.
75%
Democratic Party
$19,240 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado holds a clear edge in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Andy Barr, who is instead running for Senate. The district carries an R+7 partisan lean and delivered a 26-point Republican victory in 2024. Recent Democratic-sponsored polls show a tightening contest, with a late-July survey tying Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo at 47 percent each and earlier surveys showing narrow Republican leads or dead heats. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Trader pricing at roughly 75 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district’s structural advantages and historical voting patterns, even as Democratic optimism has grown from polling trends and state-level factors heading into the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$33,635End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado holds a clear edge in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Andy Barr, who is instead running for Senate. The district carries an R+7 partisan lean and delivered a 26-point Republican victory in 2024. Recent Democratic-sponsored polls show a tightening contest, with a late-July survey tying Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo at 47 percent each and earlier surveys showing narrow Republican leads or dead heats. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Trader pricing at roughly 75 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district’s structural advantages and historical voting patterns, even as Democratic optimism has grown from polling trends and state-level factors heading into the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,635End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado holds a clear edge in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, an open seat previously held by Republican Andy Barr, who is instead running for Senate. The district carries an R+7 partisan lean and delivered a 26-point Republican victory in 2024. Recent Democratic-sponsored polls show a tightening contest, with a late-July survey tying Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo at 47 percent each and earlier surveys showing narrow Republican leads or dead heats. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Trader pricing at roughly 75 percent for the Republican Party reflects the district’s structural advantages and historical voting patterns, even as Democratic optimism has grown from polling trends and state-level factors heading into the November 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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