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Politics·Taiwan

Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 10%

Liang Wen-tao 2.8%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 10%

Liang Wen-tao 2.8%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Chen Yu-jen

Chen Yu-jen

$1,969 Vol.

88%

icon for Li Wen-liang

Li Wen-liang

$397 Vol.

10%

icon for Liang Wen-tao

Liang Wen-tao

$250 Vol.

3%

icon for Yang Cheng-wu

Yang Cheng-wu

$246 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Kuomintang nominee for the November 28, 2026, Kinmen County magistrate election, reflecting her unchallenged party backing in a traditionally deep-blue offshore constituency. The KMT formalized her nomination in March 2026 after she registered as the sole candidate in internal processes, positioning her to emphasize cross-strait engagement, long-term care, and local development. Incumbent independent Chen Fu-hai remains ineligible under tightened anti-corruption rules, while splinter candidacies from figures such as Li Wen-liang, Yang Cheng-wu, and Liang Wen-tao have fragmented potential opposition support. Internal polling from spring 2026 showed her maintaining wide leads in head-to-head and multi-candidate scenarios. Candidate registration opens August 31 with no DPP nominee fielded, reinforcing trader consensus on her frontrunner status ahead of the vote.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,862
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen holds an 87.5% implied probability as the Kuomintang nominee for the November 28, 2026, Kinmen County magistrate election, reflecting her unchallenged party backing in a traditionally deep-blue offshore constituency. The KMT formalized her nomination in March 2026 after she registered as the sole candidate in internal processes, positioning her to emphasize cross-strait engagement, long-term care, and local development. Incumbent independent Chen Fu-hai remains ineligible under tightened anti-corruption rules, while splinter candidacies from figures such as Li Wen-liang, Yang Cheng-wu, and Liang Wen-tao have fragmented potential opposition support. Internal polling from spring 2026 showed her maintaining wide leads in head-to-head and multi-candidate scenarios. Candidate registration opens August 31 with no DPP nominee fielded, reinforcing trader consensus on her frontrunner status ahead of the vote.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,862
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chen Yu-jen" at 88%, followed by "Li Wen-liang" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Chen Yu-jen" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Li Wen-liang" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.