Lai Jui-lung, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee who secured the party’s Kaohsiung mayoral primary in January 2026, holds a commanding 77.5% implied probability in the market. This positioning stems from the DPP’s longstanding organizational strength and control of the mayoralty under the popular incumbent Chen Chi-mai, whose high approval ratings have not fully transferred but still provide a base-rate advantage in a city where the party dominates legislative seats. Ko Chih-en, the Kuomintang candidate nominated in late 2025, trails at 23.3% amid mixed polling that shows narrower gaps in some recent surveys, including online and telephone results from July and August 2026. Recent heavy rainfall and flooding in southern Taiwan have prompted both candidates to address infrastructure concerns, while other primary rivals and minor contenders remain at negligible probabilities ahead of candidate registration in late August.