RBI projections and professional forecaster surveys position the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s FY 2026-27 CPI inflation as the clear market leader, with median estimates clustered around 5.0%. Recent upward revisions to 5.0% (from earlier 4.6%) reflect persistent food and fuel price pressures tied to Middle East tensions and elevated global energy costs, lifting June 2026 headline inflation to 4.4% after 16 months below target. Core inflation excluding food, fuel, and precious metals remains contained near 2.3-2.5%, limiting broad-based pass-through so far. The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August 2026, citing evenly balanced risks and supply-driven dynamics rather than demand overheating. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 2026-27 prints peaking near 5.9% and monsoon outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 90%
3.75% to 4.49% 7.2%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$82,683 Vol.
$82,683 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
7%
4.50%+
90%
4.50%+ 90%
3.75% to 4.49% 7.2%
<0.75% 1.6%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$82,683 Vol.
$82,683 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
$2,299 Vol.
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,517 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,576 Vol.
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,343 Vol.
1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,407 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$29,885 Vol.
7%
4.50%+
$19,658 Vol.
90%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRBI projections and professional forecaster surveys position the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s FY 2026-27 CPI inflation as the clear market leader, with median estimates clustered around 5.0%. Recent upward revisions to 5.0% (from earlier 4.6%) reflect persistent food and fuel price pressures tied to Middle East tensions and elevated global energy costs, lifting June 2026 headline inflation to 4.4% after 16 months below target. Core inflation excluding food, fuel, and precious metals remains contained near 2.3-2.5%, limiting broad-based pass-through so far. The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August 2026, citing evenly balanced risks and supply-driven dynamics rather than demand overheating. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 2026-27 prints peaking near 5.9% and monsoon outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$82,683End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRBI projections and professional forecaster surveys position the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s FY 2026-27 CPI inflation as the clear market leader, with median estimates clustered around 5.0%. Recent upward revisions to 5.0% (from earlier 4.6%) reflect persistent food and fuel price pressures tied to Middle East tensions and elevated global energy costs, lifting June 2026 headline inflation to 4.4% after 16 months below target. Core inflation excluding food, fuel, and precious metals remains contained near 2.3-2.5%, limiting broad-based pass-through so far. The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August 2026, citing evenly balanced risks and supply-driven dynamics rather than demand overheating. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 2026-27 prints peaking near 5.9% and monsoon outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$82,683End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...RBI projections and professional forecaster surveys position the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s FY 2026-27 CPI inflation as the clear market leader, with median estimates clustered around 5.0%. Recent upward revisions to 5.0% (from earlier 4.6%) reflect persistent food and fuel price pressures tied to Middle East tensions and elevated global energy costs, lifting June 2026 headline inflation to 4.4% after 16 months below target. Core inflation excluding food, fuel, and precious metals remains contained near 2.3-2.5%, limiting broad-based pass-through so far. The RBI has held the repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance through August 2026, citing evenly balanced risks and supply-driven dynamics rather than demand overheating. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 2026-27 prints peaking near 5.9% and monsoon outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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