Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93% implied probability for a Republican victory. The district carries a Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, and LaHood benefits from name recognition tied to his family's prior representation of the area. Both candidates advanced through March 2026 primaries with minimal opposition, and the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Paul Nolley has drawn limited fundraising or polling attention to date. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national midterm shift, late-cycle campaign developments, or unusual turnout patterns among key voting blocs, though the district's structural lean limits the impact of such factors absent extraordinary circumstances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$34,393 Vol.
$34,393 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$34,393 Vol.
$34,393 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,462 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$20,931 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93% implied probability for a Republican victory. The district carries a Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, and LaHood benefits from name recognition tied to his family's prior representation of the area. Both candidates advanced through March 2026 primaries with minimal opposition, and the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Paul Nolley has drawn limited fundraising or polling attention to date. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national midterm shift, late-cycle campaign developments, or unusual turnout patterns among key voting blocs, though the district's structural lean limits the impact of such factors absent extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93% implied probability for a Republican victory. The district carries a Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, and LaHood benefits from name recognition tied to his family's prior representation of the area. Both candidates advanced through March 2026 primaries with minimal opposition, and the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Paul Nolley has drawn limited fundraising or polling attention to date. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national midterm shift, late-cycle campaign developments, or unusual turnout patterns among key voting blocs, though the district's structural lean limits the impact of such factors absent extraordinary circumstances.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,393End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the Illinois 16th congressional district race, reflected in the market's 93% implied probability for a Republican victory. The district carries a Solid Republican rating from nonpartisan analysts, with a partisan voting index favoring the GOP, and LaHood benefits from name recognition tied to his family's prior representation of the area. Both candidates advanced through March 2026 primaries with minimal opposition, and the general election matchup against Democratic nominee Paul Nolley has drawn limited fundraising or polling attention to date. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include an unexpected national midterm shift, late-cycle campaign developments, or unusual turnout patterns among key voting blocs, though the district's structural lean limits the impact of such factors absent extraordinary circumstances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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