Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election for Idaho's 2nd congressional district. The seat's R+13 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in eastern and rural counties, and Simpson's multi-term record anchor trader consensus at 94.5 percent for a Republican victory. Race forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, modest opposition fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling or national spending. A Republican win would require standard midterm turnout patterns in the district's agricultural and energy-producing areas. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen scandal, health event, or atypical national Democratic surge, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedID-02 House Election Winner
ID-02 House Election Winner
$31,053 Vol.
$31,053 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
6%
$31,053 Vol.
$31,053 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,246 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$17,807 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election for Idaho's 2nd congressional district. The seat's R+13 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in eastern and rural counties, and Simpson's multi-term record anchor trader consensus at 94.5 percent for a Republican victory. Race forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, modest opposition fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling or national spending. A Republican win would require standard midterm turnout patterns in the district's agricultural and energy-producing areas. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen scandal, health event, or atypical national Democratic surge, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$31,053End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election for Idaho's 2nd congressional district. The seat's R+13 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in eastern and rural counties, and Simpson's multi-term record anchor trader consensus at 94.5 percent for a Republican victory. Race forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, modest opposition fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling or national spending. A Republican win would require standard midterm turnout patterns in the district's agricultural and energy-producing areas. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen scandal, health event, or atypical national Democratic surge, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,053End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63 percent of the vote and faces Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election for Idaho's 2nd congressional district. The seat's R+13 partisan lean, consistent Republican performance in eastern and rural counties, and Simpson's multi-term record anchor trader consensus at 94.5 percent for a Republican victory. Race forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure, modest opposition fundraising, and the absence of competitive polling or national spending. A Republican win would require standard midterm turnout patterns in the district's agricultural and energy-producing areas. Low-probability shifts could stem from an unforeseen scandal, health event, or atypical national Democratic surge, though structural factors make such outcomes unlikely before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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