**Recent CDC FluSurv-NET and RESP-NET surveillance shows influenza-associated hospitalization rates at or below the 0.1 per 100,000 population threshold during the 2025–26 off-season.** Week 30 (ending August 1) recorded a weekly rate of 0.0, following a 0.1 rate in Week 25. With Week 33 (August 16–22) falling squarely in the summer lull—when positive test rates typically drop below 2% and community transmission is minimal—trader consensus splits near 50% on whether the final reported rate lands above, below, or exactly at 0.1. Key scientific factors include the near-absence of sustained influenza circulation outside the typical October–May window, low testing volumes that amplify statistical noise from sporadic cases, and potential minor revisions from reporting lags in FluSurv-NET’s population-based network. Historical patterns confirm summer weekly rates routinely register at 0.0–0.1, creating genuine uncertainty around precise resolution given small absolute case counts. Upcoming weekly FluView updates and any early September signals of rising activity will provide the next data points likely to shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 33, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 33, 2026?
<0.1 50%
0.1 50%
>0.1 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<0.1
50%
0.1
50%
>0.1
50%
<0.1 50%
0.1 50%
>0.1 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 21, 2026
<0.1
$0 Vol.
50%
0.1
$0 Vol.
50%
>0.1
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Recent CDC FluSurv-NET and RESP-NET surveillance shows influenza-associated hospitalization rates at or below the 0.1 per 100,000 population threshold during the 2025–26 off-season.** Week 30 (ending August 1) recorded a weekly rate of 0.0, following a 0.1 rate in Week 25. With Week 33 (August 16–22) falling squarely in the summer lull—when positive test rates typically drop below 2% and community transmission is minimal—trader consensus splits near 50% on whether the final reported rate lands above, below, or exactly at 0.1.
Key scientific factors include the near-absence of sustained influenza circulation outside the typical October–May window, low testing volumes that amplify statistical noise from sporadic cases, and potential minor revisions from reporting lags in FluSurv-NET’s population-based network. Historical patterns confirm summer weekly rates routinely register at 0.0–0.1, creating genuine uncertainty around precise resolution given small absolute case counts. Upcoming weekly FluView updates and any early September signals of rising activity will provide the next data points likely to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.**Recent CDC FluSurv-NET and RESP-NET surveillance shows influenza-associated hospitalization rates at or below the 0.1 per 100,000 population threshold during the 2025–26 off-season.** Week 30 (ending August 1) recorded a weekly rate of 0.0, following a 0.1 rate in Week 25. With Week 33 (August 16–22) falling squarely in the summer lull—when positive test rates typically drop below 2% and community transmission is minimal—trader consensus splits near 50% on whether the final reported rate lands above, below, or exactly at 0.1.
Key scientific factors include the near-absence of sustained influenza circulation outside the typical October–May window, low testing volumes that amplify statistical noise from sporadic cases, and potential minor revisions from reporting lags in FluSurv-NET’s population-based network. Historical patterns confirm summer weekly rates routinely register at 0.0–0.1, creating genuine uncertainty around precise resolution given small absolute case counts. Upcoming weekly FluView updates and any early September signals of rising activity will provide the next data points likely to shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent CDC FluSurv-NET and RESP-NET surveillance shows influenza-associated hospitalization rates at or below the 0.1 per 100,000 population threshold during the 2025–26 off-season.** Week 30 (ending August 1) recorded a weekly rate of 0.0, following a 0.1 rate in Week 25. With Week 33 (August 16–22) falling squarely in the summer lull—when positive test rates typically drop below 2% and community transmission is minimal—trader consensus splits near 50% on whether the final reported rate lands above, below, or exactly at 0.1. Key scientific factors include the near-absence of sustained influenza circulation outside the typical October–May window, low testing volumes that amplify statistical noise from sporadic cases, and potential minor revisions from reporting lags in FluSurv-NET’s population-based network. Historical patterns confirm summer weekly rates routinely register at 0.0–0.1, creating genuine uncertainty around precise resolution given small absolute case counts. Upcoming weekly FluView updates and any early September signals of rising activity will provide the next data points likely to shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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