**Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The southwest Connecticut seat, encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich, and surrounding towns, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and Kamala Harris’s 23-point margin there in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, won reelection in 2024 with 61.1% and faced no primary opposition after the August 11 contest. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who defeated Daniel Miressi in the low-turnout GOP primary, has raised minimal funds compared with Himes’s more than $1.3 million. Independent candidate Damon Cerreta adds little competitive pressure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that the district’s partisan makeup and Himes’s incumbency create substantial structural barriers for Republicans absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or dramatic national realignment before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCT-04 House Election Winner
CT-04 House Election Winner
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$47,340 Vol.
$47,340 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,773 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$25,567 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The southwest Connecticut seat, encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich, and surrounding towns, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and Kamala Harris’s 23-point margin there in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, won reelection in 2024 with 61.1% and faced no primary opposition after the August 11 contest. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who defeated Daniel Miressi in the low-turnout GOP primary, has raised minimal funds compared with Himes’s more than $1.3 million. Independent candidate Damon Cerreta adds little competitive pressure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that the district’s partisan makeup and Himes’s incumbency create substantial structural barriers for Republicans absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or dramatic national realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The southwest Connecticut seat, encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich, and surrounding towns, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and Kamala Harris’s 23-point margin there in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, won reelection in 2024 with 61.1% and faced no primary opposition after the August 11 contest. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who defeated Daniel Miressi in the low-turnout GOP primary, has raised minimal funds compared with Himes’s more than $1.3 million. Independent candidate Damon Cerreta adds little competitive pressure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that the district’s partisan makeup and Himes’s incumbency create substantial structural barriers for Republicans absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or dramatic national realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,340End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes holds a commanding position in Connecticut’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** The southwest Connecticut seat, encompassing Bridgeport, Stamford, Greenwich, and surrounding towns, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and Kamala Harris’s 23-point margin there in 2024. Himes, first elected in 2008, won reelection in 2024 with 61.1% and faced no primary opposition after the August 11 contest. Republican nominee Michael Goldstein, who defeated Daniel Miressi in the low-turnout GOP primary, has raised minimal funds compared with Himes’s more than $1.3 million. Independent candidate Damon Cerreta adds little competitive pressure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that the district’s partisan makeup and Himes’s incumbency create substantial structural barriers for Republicans absent an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or dramatic national realignment before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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