José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking a second term, leads the Cape Verde presidential election market at 78% implied probability ahead of the November 15, 2026, vote. His position reflects strong incumbency advantages, a decisive May 2026 legislative victory that gave PAICV a 37-seat majority in the National Assembly, and limited early momentum for declared challengers from the opposition MpD. Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis, both government ministers, have announced candidacies but trail significantly in trader pricing at 5% and 1.7%, respectively. With three months until the first round, the consensus pricing incorporates the structural edge for the sitting president while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes, coalition alignments, or late campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCape Verde Presidential Election Winner
Cape Verde Presidential Election Winner
José Maria Neves 78%
Joana Rosa 5.1%
Casimiro de Pina 3.2%
Péricles Tavares 2.5%
$17,908 Vol.
$17,908 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
José Maria Neves
78%
Joana Rosa
5%
Casimiro de Pina
3%
Péricles Tavares
3%
Milton Paiva
2%
Janine Lélis
1%
Fernando Delgado
1%
José Maria Neves 78%
Joana Rosa 5.1%
Casimiro de Pina 3.2%
Péricles Tavares 2.5%
$17,908 Vol.
$17,908 Vol.
Nov 15, 2026
José Maria Neves
$12,099 Vol.
78%
Joana Rosa
$1,654 Vol.
5%
Casimiro de Pina
$640 Vol.
3%
Péricles Tavares
$772 Vol.
3%
Milton Paiva
$394 Vol.
2%
Janine Lélis
$1,974 Vol.
1%
Fernando Delgado
$375 Vol.
1%
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking a second term, leads the Cape Verde presidential election market at 78% implied probability ahead of the November 15, 2026, vote. His position reflects strong incumbency advantages, a decisive May 2026 legislative victory that gave PAICV a 37-seat majority in the National Assembly, and limited early momentum for declared challengers from the opposition MpD. Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis, both government ministers, have announced candidacies but trail significantly in trader pricing at 5% and 1.7%, respectively. With three months until the first round, the consensus pricing incorporates the structural edge for the sitting president while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes, coalition alignments, or late campaign developments.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ET
Volume
$17,908End Date
Nov 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking a second term, leads the Cape Verde presidential election market at 78% implied probability ahead of the November 15, 2026, vote. His position reflects strong incumbency advantages, a decisive May 2026 legislative victory that gave PAICV a 37-seat majority in the National Assembly, and limited early momentum for declared challengers from the opposition MpD. Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis, both government ministers, have announced candidacies but trail significantly in trader pricing at 5% and 1.7%, respectively. With three months until the first round, the consensus pricing incorporates the structural edge for the sitting president while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes, coalition alignments, or late campaign developments.
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in Cape Verde on November 15, 2026, with a second round to be held on November 29, 2026 if no candidate receives a majority of valid votes.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Cape Verde presidential elections. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of the Cape Verde, including the National Commission of Elections (https://cne.cv/).
Volume
$17,908End Date
Nov 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 8:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president seeking a second term, leads the Cape Verde presidential election market at 78% implied probability ahead of the November 15, 2026, vote. His position reflects strong incumbency advantages, a decisive May 2026 legislative victory that gave PAICV a 37-seat majority in the National Assembly, and limited early momentum for declared challengers from the opposition MpD. Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis, both government ministers, have announced candidacies but trail significantly in trader pricing at 5% and 1.7%, respectively. With three months until the first round, the consensus pricing incorporates the structural edge for the sitting president while leaving room for shifts from primary outcomes, coalition alignments, or late campaign developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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