California’s 6th congressional district leans Democratic following recent redistricting that adjusted boundaries around the Sacramento suburbs. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democrat Richard Pan advanced alongside independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party and caucuses with Republicans in Congress. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and Pan’s fundraising and organizational edge. A July poll showed Pan narrowly ahead of Kiley among likely voters. The Democratic candidate’s strong position in trader consensus stems from these structural and campaign factors, though a late national Republican surge, unusually high independent turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment on state issues could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,284 Vol.
$49,284 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,284 Vol.
$49,284 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,041 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,243 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 6th congressional district leans Democratic following recent redistricting that adjusted boundaries around the Sacramento suburbs. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democrat Richard Pan advanced alongside independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party and caucuses with Republicans in Congress. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and Pan’s fundraising and organizational edge. A July poll showed Pan narrowly ahead of Kiley among likely voters. The Democratic candidate’s strong position in trader consensus stems from these structural and campaign factors, though a late national Republican surge, unusually high independent turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment on state issues could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$49,284End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California’s 6th congressional district leans Democratic following recent redistricting that adjusted boundaries around the Sacramento suburbs. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democrat Richard Pan advanced alongside independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party and caucuses with Republicans in Congress. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and Pan’s fundraising and organizational edge. A July poll showed Pan narrowly ahead of Kiley among likely voters. The Democratic candidate’s strong position in trader consensus stems from these structural and campaign factors, though a late national Republican surge, unusually high independent turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment on state issues could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$49,284End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 6th congressional district leans Democratic following recent redistricting that adjusted boundaries around the Sacramento suburbs. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Democrat Richard Pan advanced alongside independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party and caucuses with Republicans in Congress. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the seat as Solid or Lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s partisan composition and Pan’s fundraising and organizational edge. A July poll showed Pan narrowly ahead of Kiley among likely voters. The Democratic candidate’s strong position in trader consensus stems from these structural and campaign factors, though a late national Republican surge, unusually high independent turnout, or shifts in voter sentiment on state issues could narrow the gap before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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