Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting, reflecting the central bank’s measured normalization pace after the June 25-basis-point hike to 1%. Persistent upside risks to inflation from the weak yen near 160 against the dollar, elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand have supported expectations of further tightening, with markets pricing elevated probabilities of a move as soon as September. Recent communications and the July Outlook Report underscore balanced growth risks alongside sticky underlying CPI above 2%, while the government’s emerging support for earlier action has not altered the preference for roughly six-month intervals between adjustments. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus thus embeds these dynamics, with limited scope for an October shift absent fresh data surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,707 Vol.
$46,707 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase 3.1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,707 Vol.
$46,707 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,810 Vol.
<1%
No change
$23,963 Vol.
77%
25 bps increase
$14,324 Vol.
20%
50+ bps increase
$2,969 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting, reflecting the central bank’s measured normalization pace after the June 25-basis-point hike to 1%. Persistent upside risks to inflation from the weak yen near 160 against the dollar, elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand have supported expectations of further tightening, with markets pricing elevated probabilities of a move as soon as September. Recent communications and the July Outlook Report underscore balanced growth risks alongside sticky underlying CPI above 2%, while the government’s emerging support for earlier action has not altered the preference for roughly six-month intervals between adjustments. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus thus embeds these dynamics, with limited scope for an October shift absent fresh data surprises.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$46,707End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting, reflecting the central bank’s measured normalization pace after the June 25-basis-point hike to 1%. Persistent upside risks to inflation from the weak yen near 160 against the dollar, elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand have supported expectations of further tightening, with markets pricing elevated probabilities of a move as soon as September. Recent communications and the July Outlook Report underscore balanced growth risks alongside sticky underlying CPI above 2%, while the government’s emerging support for earlier action has not altered the preference for roughly six-month intervals between adjustments. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus thus embeds these dynamics, with limited scope for an October shift absent fresh data surprises.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$46,707End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds strongly favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting, reflecting the central bank’s measured normalization pace after the June 25-basis-point hike to 1%. Persistent upside risks to inflation from the weak yen near 160 against the dollar, elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand have supported expectations of further tightening, with markets pricing elevated probabilities of a move as soon as September. Recent communications and the July Outlook Report underscore balanced growth risks alongside sticky underlying CPI above 2%, while the government’s emerging support for earlier action has not altered the preference for roughly six-month intervals between adjustments. Traders’ skin-in-the-game consensus thus embeds these dynamics, with limited scope for an October shift absent fresh data surprises.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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