Recent Bank of Japan communications and the June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 1.0% policy rate—its highest since 1995—anchor the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting. July data showed the board holding steady while cutting its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% amid energy subsidies and noting balanced risks, even as underlying price pressures and yen weakness keep some members hawkish. Traders price a 20.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase, reflecting Reuters polling and sources that flag possible September or October action if inflation overshoots or currency depreciation accelerates. The October 29-30 meeting follows the September policy decision and fresh CPI releases, leaving room for modest repricing if labor markets or producer prices surprise to the upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 77%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,707 Vol.
$46,707 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
77%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 77%
25 bps increase 21%
50+ bps increase 2.7%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$46,707 Vol.
$46,707 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,640 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$2,810 Vol.
<1%
No change
$23,963 Vol.
77%
25 bps increase
$14,324 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$2,969 Vol.
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and the June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 1.0% policy rate—its highest since 1995—anchor the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting. July data showed the board holding steady while cutting its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% amid energy subsidies and noting balanced risks, even as underlying price pressures and yen weakness keep some members hawkish. Traders price a 20.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase, reflecting Reuters polling and sources that flag possible September or October action if inflation overshoots or currency depreciation accelerates. The October 29-30 meeting follows the September policy decision and fresh CPI releases, leaving room for modest repricing if labor markets or producer prices surprise to the upside.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$46,707End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent Bank of Japan communications and the June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 1.0% policy rate—its highest since 1995—anchor the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting. July data showed the board holding steady while cutting its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% amid energy subsidies and noting balanced risks, even as underlying price pressures and yen weakness keep some members hawkish. Traders price a 20.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase, reflecting Reuters polling and sources that flag possible September or October action if inflation overshoots or currency depreciation accelerates. The October 29-30 meeting follows the September policy decision and fresh CPI releases, leaving room for modest repricing if labor markets or producer prices surprise to the upside.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$46,707End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan communications and the June 2026 25 basis point hike to a 1.0% policy rate—its highest since 1995—anchor the 76.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October meeting. July data showed the board holding steady while cutting its FY2026 core inflation forecast to 2.5% amid energy subsidies and noting balanced risks, even as underlying price pressures and yen weakness keep some members hawkish. Traders price a 20.5% chance of a further 25 basis point increase, reflecting Reuters polling and sources that flag possible September or October action if inflation overshoots or currency depreciation accelerates. The October 29-30 meeting follows the September policy decision and fresh CPI releases, leaving room for modest repricing if labor markets or producer prices surprise to the upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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