The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open section in Samarkand features a razor-thin contest among the top seeds, with India, the United States, and host Uzbekistan separated by fractions of a point in average rating and implied probability. The United States tops the official seeding with a lineup anchored by Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So alongside debutants Hans Niemann and Awonder Liang, while defending champions India rely on depth and recent form from players such as Gukesh Dommaraju and Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu. Uzbekistan fields a battle-tested core including Nodirbek Abdusattorov and Javokhir Sindarov on home soil, where local support and familiarity with conditions add tangible edges. Russia’s continued exclusion removes one historical powerhouse, further concentrating the field, yet the narrow rating gaps and eleven-round Swiss format leave ample room for any of the leading teams to surge or falter based on board matchups and individual performances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIndia 26%
United States of America 26%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
India
26%
United States of America
26%
Uzbekistan
23%
China
7%
Germany
4%
Armenia
4%
Azerbaijan
4%
Ukraine
3%
Netherlands
3%
England
3%
Georgia
3%
Spain
3%
Hungary
3%
Poland
2%
Bulgaria
1%
Norway
1%
Turkmenistan
<1%
France
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Turkiye
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Iran
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
India 26%
United States of America 26%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
India
26%
United States of America
26%
Uzbekistan
23%
China
7%
Germany
4%
Armenia
4%
Azerbaijan
4%
Ukraine
3%
Netherlands
3%
England
3%
Georgia
3%
Spain
3%
Hungary
3%
Poland
2%
Bulgaria
1%
Norway
1%
Turkmenistan
<1%
France
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Turkiye
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Iran
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open section in Samarkand features a razor-thin contest among the top seeds, with India, the United States, and host Uzbekistan separated by fractions of a point in average rating and implied probability. The United States tops the official seeding with a lineup anchored by Fabiano Caruana and Wesley So alongside debutants Hans Niemann and Awonder Liang, while defending champions India rely on depth and recent form from players such as Gukesh Dommaraju and Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu. Uzbekistan fields a battle-tested core including Nodirbek Abdusattorov and Javokhir Sindarov on home soil, where local support and familiarity with conditions add tangible edges. Russia’s continued exclusion removes one historical powerhouse, further concentrating the field, yet the narrow rating gaps and eleven-round Swiss format leave ample room for any of the leading teams to surge or falter based on board matchups and individual performances.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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