India, the defending champions with Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, and Arjun Erigaisi, edge the field at 27.5% implied probability, closely followed by the top-seeded United States (23.5%) featuring Caruana, So, Niemann, and Aronian, and host Uzbekistan (22.5%) anchored by Abdusattorov and Sindarov. The bunched probabilities reflect comparable average ratings among the top four seeds, confirmed lineups emphasizing depth across boards, and Uzbekistan’s home-soil momentum in a Swiss-system event. Russia’s continued exclusion removes a historical contender, while China and Germany sit further back. Recent team announcements and form indicators have kept the race tight heading into the September 15 start in Samarkand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIndia 28%
United States of America 24%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
India
28%
United States of America
24%
Uzbekistan
23%
China
7%
Germany
4%
Azerbaijan
4%
Armenia
4%
Netherlands
3%
Ukraine
3%
England
3%
Georgia
3%
Spain
3%
Hungary
3%
Poland
2%
Bulgaria
1%
Norway
1%
France
1%
Turkmenistan
1%
Sweden
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Turkiye
<1%
Iran
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
India 28%
United States of America 24%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 28, 2026
India
$449 Vol.
28%
United States of America
$580 Vol.
24%
Uzbekistan
$448 Vol.
23%
China
$806 Vol.
7%
Germany
$212 Vol.
4%
Azerbaijan
$286 Vol.
4%
Armenia
$162 Vol.
4%
Netherlands
$236 Vol.
3%
Ukraine
$36 Vol.
3%
England
$36 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$36 Vol.
3%
Spain
$155 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$36 Vol.
3%
Poland
$36 Vol.
2%
Bulgaria
$587 Vol.
1%
Norway
$131 Vol.
1%
France
$139 Vol.
1%
Turkmenistan
$198 Vol.
1%
Sweden
$180 Vol.
<1%
Serbia
$133 Vol.
<1%
Vietnam
$26 Vol.
<1%
Turkiye
$26 Vol.
<1%
Iran
$194 Vol.
<1%
Argentina
$61 Vol.
<1%
Austria
$61 Vol.
<1%
Brazil
$61 Vol.
<1%
Canada
$61 Vol.
<1%
Chile
$61 Vol.
<1%
Colombia
$61 Vol.
<1%
Croatia
$61 Vol.
<1%
Czech Republic
$61 Vol.
<1%
Egypt
$61 Vol.
<1%
Greece
$61 Vol.
<1%
Kazakhstan
$61 Vol.
<1%
Latvia
$61 Vol.
<1%
Lithuania
$61 Vol.
<1%
Moldova
$61 Vol.
<1%
Mexico
$61 Vol.
<1%
Romania
$61 Vol.
<1%
Slovenia
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.India, the defending champions with Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, and Arjun Erigaisi, edge the field at 27.5% implied probability, closely followed by the top-seeded United States (23.5%) featuring Caruana, So, Niemann, and Aronian, and host Uzbekistan (22.5%) anchored by Abdusattorov and Sindarov. The bunched probabilities reflect comparable average ratings among the top four seeds, confirmed lineups emphasizing depth across boards, and Uzbekistan’s home-soil momentum in a Swiss-system event. Russia’s continued exclusion removes a historical contender, while China and Germany sit further back. Recent team announcements and form indicators have kept the race tight heading into the September 15 start in Samarkand.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Volume
$6,158End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.India, the defending champions with Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, and Arjun Erigaisi, edge the field at 27.5% implied probability, closely followed by the top-seeded United States (23.5%) featuring Caruana, So, Niemann, and Aronian, and host Uzbekistan (22.5%) anchored by Abdusattorov and Sindarov. The bunched probabilities reflect comparable average ratings among the top four seeds, confirmed lineups emphasizing depth across boards, and Uzbekistan’s home-soil momentum in a Swiss-system event. Russia’s continued exclusion removes a historical contender, while China and Germany sit further back. Recent team announcements and form indicators have kept the race tight heading into the September 15 start in Samarkand.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Open Tournament, currently scheduled for September 15, 2026 to September 28, 2026.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,158End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...India, the defending champions with Gukesh, Praggnanandhaa, and Arjun Erigaisi, edge the field at 27.5% implied probability, closely followed by the top-seeded United States (23.5%) featuring Caruana, So, Niemann, and Aronian, and host Uzbekistan (22.5%) anchored by Abdusattorov and Sindarov. The bunched probabilities reflect comparable average ratings among the top four seeds, confirmed lineups emphasizing depth across boards, and Uzbekistan’s home-soil momentum in a Swiss-system event. Russia’s continued exclusion removes a historical contender, while China and Germany sit further back. Recent team announcements and form indicators have kept the race tight heading into the September 15 start in Samarkand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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