The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad in Samarkand features an unusually tight Open section race among the top seeds, with India, the United States, and host Uzbekistan separated by narrow average rating margins on the official lineups. India enters as defending champions with Gukesh, Arjun Erigaisi, Praggnanandhaa, Nihal Sarin, and Vidit Gujrathi, though the world champion has lost rating points since his title win. The United States tops the seeding with Caruana, So, Niemann, Aronian, and Liang, while Uzbekistan fields a young core including Abdusattorov and Sindarov on home soil for added support. Recent team confirmations, Russia's exclusion, and a July friendly where the U.S. edged Uzbekistan in rapid and blitz formats underscore the competitive depth, keeping implied probabilities clustered among the leading nations ahead of the 11-round Swiss system event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIndia 29%
United States of America 24%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
India
29%
United States of America
24%
Uzbekistan
23%
China
7%
Germany
4%
Azerbaijan
4%
Armenia
4%
Netherlands
3%
Hungary
3%
Ukraine
2%
Spain
2%
England
2%
Georgia
2%
Poland
2%
Bulgaria
1%
Norway
1%
Turkmenistan
1%
Sweden
<1%
France
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Turkiye
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Iran
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
India 29%
United States of America 24%
Uzbekistan 23%
China 7%
India
29%
United States of America
24%
Uzbekistan
23%
China
7%
Germany
4%
Azerbaijan
4%
Armenia
4%
Netherlands
3%
Hungary
3%
Ukraine
2%
Spain
2%
England
2%
Georgia
2%
Poland
2%
Bulgaria
1%
Norway
1%
Turkmenistan
1%
Sweden
<1%
France
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Turkiye
<1%
Vietnam
<1%
Iran
<1%
Argentina
<1%
Austria
<1%
Brazil
<1%
Canada
<1%
Chile
<1%
Colombia
<1%
Croatia
<1%
Czech Republic
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Greece
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Latvia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Moldova
<1%
Mexico
<1%
Romania
<1%
Slovenia
<1%
If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If this tournament is postponed after October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other."
If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, FIDE (https://chessolympiad2026.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad in Samarkand features an unusually tight Open section race among the top seeds, with India, the United States, and host Uzbekistan separated by narrow average rating margins on the official lineups. India enters as defending champions with Gukesh, Arjun Erigaisi, Praggnanandhaa, Nihal Sarin, and Vidit Gujrathi, though the world champion has lost rating points since his title win. The United States tops the seeding with Caruana, So, Niemann, Aronian, and Liang, while Uzbekistan fields a young core including Abdusattorov and Sindarov on home soil for added support. Recent team confirmations, Russia's exclusion, and a July friendly where the U.S. edged Uzbekistan in rapid and blitz formats underscore the competitive depth, keeping implied probabilities clustered among the leading nations ahead of the 11-round Swiss system event.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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