Cristian Garin holds a clear edge in the US Open men's qualifying second round against Elias Ymer, driven by his superior ATP ranking near 135 versus Ymer's 204, stronger recent results on hard courts, and a dominant 3-0 head-to-head record that includes straight-sets wins on grass and clay. Both players are 30-year-olds with extensive Challenger and ATP experience, but Garin has demonstrated resilience in tight matches, as shown in his three-set victory over Spencer Johnson in round one. Ymer advanced comfortably in straight sets against Franco Roncadelli but faces a higher-quality opponent with better break-point conversion and serve consistency historically. On the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, these factors shape trader consensus around Garin's implied probability advantage while acknowledging the potential for Ymer to capitalize on any lapses in the best-of-three format.
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Elias Ymer – Cristian Garin
Moneyline
$73.1K Vol.
Game Spread
$0 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Elias Ymer' if Elias Ymer advances against Cristian Garin.
This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Elias Ymer.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Elias Ymer – Cristian Garin
Moneyline
$73.1K Vol.
Game Spread
$0 Vol.
This market will resolve to 'Elias Ymer' if Elias Ymer advances against Cristian Garin.
This market will resolve to 'Cristian Garin' if Cristian Garin advances against Elias Ymer.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by September 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/currentResolver
0x65070BE91...Cristian Garin holds a clear edge in the US Open men's qualifying second round against Elias Ymer, driven by his superior ATP ranking near 135 versus Ymer's 204, stronger recent results on hard courts, and a dominant 3-0 head-to-head record that includes straight-sets wins on grass and clay. Both players are 30-year-olds with extensive Challenger and ATP experience, but Garin has demonstrated resilience in tight matches, as shown in his three-set victory over Spencer Johnson in round one. Ymer advanced comfortably in straight sets against Franco Roncadelli but faces a higher-quality opponent with better break-point conversion and serve consistency historically. On the hard courts of Flushing Meadows, these factors shape trader consensus around Garin's implied probability advantage while acknowledging the potential for Ymer to capitalize on any lapses in the best-of-three format.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBeware of external links.
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