Elevated credit losses and concentrated commercial lending exposures have driven five small U.S. bank failures through August 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January, underscoring persistent fragility in regional and community institutions amid higher-for-longer rates. Large-bank stress tests, however, show the system absorbing over $700 billion in hypothetical losses while maintaining capital above minimums, supporting resilience at systemically important firms. Trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability for another failure by year-end reflects this split: ongoing idiosyncratic risks from net charge-offs and uninsured deposit sensitivity versus contained systemic threats and regulatory oversight. Key near-term catalysts include September economic data releases and any FOMC signals on policy easing that could ease or intensify margin pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated67% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
67% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated credit losses and concentrated commercial lending exposures have driven five small U.S. bank failures through August 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January, underscoring persistent fragility in regional and community institutions amid higher-for-longer rates. Large-bank stress tests, however, show the system absorbing over $700 billion in hypothetical losses while maintaining capital above minimums, supporting resilience at systemically important firms. Trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability for another failure by year-end reflects this split: ongoing idiosyncratic risks from net charge-offs and uninsured deposit sensitivity versus contained systemic threats and regulatory oversight. Key near-term catalysts include September economic data releases and any FOMC signals on policy easing that could ease or intensify margin pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$69End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated credit losses and concentrated commercial lending exposures have driven five small U.S. bank failures through August 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January, underscoring persistent fragility in regional and community institutions amid higher-for-longer rates. Large-bank stress tests, however, show the system absorbing over $700 billion in hypothetical losses while maintaining capital above minimums, supporting resilience at systemically important firms. Trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability for another failure by year-end reflects this split: ongoing idiosyncratic risks from net charge-offs and uninsured deposit sensitivity versus contained systemic threats and regulatory oversight. Key near-term catalysts include September economic data releases and any FOMC signals on policy easing that could ease or intensify margin pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$69End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated credit losses and concentrated commercial lending exposures have driven five small U.S. bank failures through August 2026, including Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January, underscoring persistent fragility in regional and community institutions amid higher-for-longer rates. Large-bank stress tests, however, show the system absorbing over $700 billion in hypothetical losses while maintaining capital above minimums, supporting resilience at systemically important firms. Trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability for another failure by year-end reflects this split: ongoing idiosyncratic risks from net charge-offs and uninsured deposit sensitivity versus contained systemic threats and regulatory oversight. Key near-term catalysts include September economic data releases and any FOMC signals on policy easing that could ease or intensify margin pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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