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icon for Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

icon for Social Security Insolvent by...?

Social Security Insolvent by...?

NEW
Dec 31, 2028
Polymarket

$394 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2027

$349 Vol.

11%

December 31, 2028

$45 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—with ongoing payroll taxes then covering only 78% of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. Key drivers include lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions tied to recent policy changes, and revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut income taxes on benefits. These updates worsened the 75-year actuarial shortfall to 4.42% of taxable payroll. A bipartisan PROMISE Act introduced in July 2026 seeks an advisory committee for reforms, amid polling showing broad support for balanced fixes, though Congress has taken no major action to date. Resolution would hinge on legislative changes before reserves run out.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The latest Social Security Trustees Report, released in June 2026, projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will deplete reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032—one quarter earlier than prior estimates—with ongoing payroll taxes then covering only 78% of scheduled benefits. The combined OASI and Disability Insurance funds are expected to last until the third quarter of 2034. Key drivers include lower fertility rates, reduced immigration assumptions tied to recent policy changes, and revenue losses from the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which cut income taxes on benefits. These updates worsened the 75-year actuarial shortfall to 4.42% of taxable payroll. A bipartisan PROMISE Act introduced in July 2026 seeks an advisory committee for reforms, amid polling showing broad support for balanced fixes, though Congress has taken no major action to date. Resolution would hinge on legislative changes before reserves run out.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify.

A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur.

The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$394
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:29 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Social Security Administration is unable to fully pay benefits due to lack of solvency by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, Social Security will be considered to have a lack of solvency if its Trust Funds' combined asset reserves are exhausted and benefit payments must be reduced or eliminated. A temporary lack of payments related to the debt ceiling limit will not qualify. A projected depletion date alone will not qualify; actual depletion must occur. The primary resolution source will be official publications from the Social Security Administration or the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Social Security Insolvent by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2028" at 16%, followed by "December 31, 2027" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Social Security Insolvent by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Social Security Insolvent by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Social Security Insolvent by...?" is "December 31, 2028" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2027" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Social Security Insolvent by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.