**Recent positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) plus Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability.** On August 19, 2026, Moderna and Merck reported that the personalized mRNA vaccine met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone, marking the first late-stage success for an individualized neoantigen mRNA cancer therapy. The companies immediately outlined plans for regulatory engagement and full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting, building on prior breakthrough therapy designation and Phase 2 signals. Traders view the robust data, mRNA platform experience, and expedited review potential as supporting a BLA filing in late 2026 or early 2027—well inside the June 30, 2027 deadline—while noting modest remaining uncertainty around manufacturing scale-up or additional FDA information requests. Key near-term catalysts include detailed results release and initial regulatory feedback.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated88% chance
$40,502 Vol.
$40,502 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
88% chance
$40,502 Vol.
$40,502 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) plus Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability.** On August 19, 2026, Moderna and Merck reported that the personalized mRNA vaccine met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone, marking the first late-stage success for an individualized neoantigen mRNA cancer therapy. The companies immediately outlined plans for regulatory engagement and full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting, building on prior breakthrough therapy designation and Phase 2 signals. Traders view the robust data, mRNA platform experience, and expedited review potential as supporting a BLA filing in late 2026 or early 2027—well inside the June 30, 2027 deadline—while noting modest remaining uncertainty around manufacturing scale-up or additional FDA information requests. Key near-term catalysts include detailed results release and initial regulatory feedback.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$40,502End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) plus Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability.** On August 19, 2026, Moderna and Merck reported that the personalized mRNA vaccine met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone, marking the first late-stage success for an individualized neoantigen mRNA cancer therapy. The companies immediately outlined plans for regulatory engagement and full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting, building on prior breakthrough therapy designation and Phase 2 signals. Traders view the robust data, mRNA platform experience, and expedited review potential as supporting a BLA filing in late 2026 or early 2027—well inside the June 30, 2027 deadline—while noting modest remaining uncertainty around manufacturing scale-up or additional FDA information requests. Key near-term catalysts include detailed results release and initial regulatory feedback.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that a Biologics License Application (BLA) for intismeran autogene has been submitted to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), or that the FDA has accepted such an application for review, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Intismeran autogene refers to the individualized neoantigen therapy developed by Moderna and Merck and evaluated in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial (NCT05933577), also known as mRNA-4157 and V940, together with any brand, trade, or nonproprietary name later assigned to that product, as well as any renamed or modified version that the relevant company or the FDA identify as the same product or a direct continuation of the V940/mRNA-4157 program.
A qualifying application must seek FDA licensure of intismeran autogene through a Biologics License Application (BLA). An original BLA or a resubmission of such a BLA following FDA action will qualify. The application may cover any indication.
A qualifying announcement must come from the relevant company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof.
The submission must already have occurred at the time of the statement. A statement of intent, plan, guidance, or expected timing will not qualify.
If the FDA grants approval of intismeran autogene on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes", whether or not a submission was separately disclosed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from the company submitting the BLA, the FDA, or authorized representatives thereof; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$40,502End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent positive Phase 3 results from the INTerpath-001 trial of intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157/V940) plus Keytruda in resected high-risk melanoma have driven the 87.5% market-implied probability.** On August 19, 2026, Moderna and Merck reported that the personalized mRNA vaccine met its primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival versus Keytruda alone, marking the first late-stage success for an individualized neoantigen mRNA cancer therapy. The companies immediately outlined plans for regulatory engagement and full data presentation at an upcoming medical meeting, building on prior breakthrough therapy designation and Phase 2 signals. Traders view the robust data, mRNA platform experience, and expedited review potential as supporting a BLA filing in late 2026 or early 2027—well inside the June 30, 2027 deadline—while noting modest remaining uncertainty around manufacturing scale-up or additional FDA information requests. Key near-term catalysts include detailed results release and initial regulatory feedback.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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