James Harden’s strong preference to remain with the Cleveland Cavaliers after his February 2025 trade-deadline acquisition has driven the market’s overwhelming 97.9% consensus on Cleveland. He declined his $42.3 million player option in late June specifically to negotiate a longer-term deal in Cleveland, where he averaged 20.5 points and 7.7 assists in 26 regular-season games and helped the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Recent reports confirm Harden has agreed to a three-year, $97 million contract with a player option and trade kicker, pending finalization of salary-cap flexibility created by Cleveland’s sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson and other roster adjustments. The low single-digit or sub-1% odds on every other team reflect the absence of competing interest or viable alternatives in credible reporting. The only realistic paths to a different outcome involve unforeseen complications with the first-apron hard cap or an abrupt breakdown in the already-reported agreement before it is officially signed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team
Cleveland Cavaliers 97.9%
Toronto Raptors <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,306,862 Vol.
$1,306,862 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
Cleveland Cavaliers 97.9%
Toronto Raptors <1%
Atlanta Hawks <1%
San Antonio Spurs <1%
$1,306,862 Vol.
$1,306,862 Vol.
Cleveland Cavaliers
98%
Toronto Raptors
<1%
Atlanta Hawks
<1%
San Antonio Spurs
<1%
Memphis Grizzlies
<1%
Chicago Bulls
<1%
Golden State Warriors
<1%
LA Clippers
<1%
New York Knicks
<1%
Oklahoma City Thunder
<1%
Utah Jazz
<1%
Washington Wizards
<1%
Boston Celtics
<1%
Dallas Mavericks
<1%
Phoenix Suns
<1%
Portland Trail Blazers
<1%
Brooklyn Nets
<1%
Denver Nuggets
<1%
Miami Heat
<1%
Milwaukee Bucks
<1%
Minnesota Timberwolves
<1%
Sacramento Kings
<1%
Charlotte Hornets
<1%
Detroit Pistons
<1%
Houston Rockets
<1%
Indiana Pacers
<1%
Los Angeles Lakers
<1%
New Orleans Pelicans
<1%
Orlando Magic
<1%
Philadelphia 76ers
<1%
If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If James Harden does not officially join a new team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to "Other".
If James Harden is released, retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
An official signing announcement prior to the market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official announcements from the NBA and/or the acquiring team. A consensus of credible media reporting may also be used to resolve the market.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...James Harden’s strong preference to remain with the Cleveland Cavaliers after his February 2025 trade-deadline acquisition has driven the market’s overwhelming 97.9% consensus on Cleveland. He declined his $42.3 million player option in late June specifically to negotiate a longer-term deal in Cleveland, where he averaged 20.5 points and 7.7 assists in 26 regular-season games and helped the team reach the Eastern Conference Finals. Recent reports confirm Harden has agreed to a three-year, $97 million contract with a player option and trade kicker, pending finalization of salary-cap flexibility created by Cleveland’s sign-and-trade for Peyton Watson and other roster adjustments. The low single-digit or sub-1% odds on every other team reflect the absence of competing interest or viable alternatives in credible reporting. The only realistic paths to a different outcome involve unforeseen complications with the first-apron hard cap or an abrupt breakdown in the already-reported agreement before it is officially signed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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