**Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes established a baseline of institutional continuity.** Persistent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and limited public visibility since then, including his absence from major events, have fueled speculation about his capacity, with August 2026 statements from Iranian officials affirming meetings and good health while Israeli media highlighted concerns. Ongoing conflict dynamics, military command reshuffles ordered by Mojtaba, and a temporary collective leadership structure under the constitution have reinforced trader consensus around stability, keeping implied probabilities of change by end-2026 in the 16-25% range and lower for nearer deadlines. Key near-term variables include any confirmed health updates, Assembly of Experts actions, or escalation in external pressures that could prompt a vacancy under Article 111 procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,010,927 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
10%
December 31
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,010,927 Vol.
August 31
$1,453,923 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$480,579 Vol.
3%
October 31
$25,718 Vol.
7%
November 30
$18,737 Vol.
10%
December 31
$4,096,222 Vol.
16%
June 30, 2027
$248,087 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes established a baseline of institutional continuity.** Persistent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and limited public visibility since then, including his absence from major events, have fueled speculation about his capacity, with August 2026 statements from Iranian officials affirming meetings and good health while Israeli media highlighted concerns. Ongoing conflict dynamics, military command reshuffles ordered by Mojtaba, and a temporary collective leadership structure under the constitution have reinforced trader consensus around stability, keeping implied probabilities of change by end-2026 in the 16-25% range and lower for nearer deadlines. Key near-term variables include any confirmed health updates, Assembly of Experts actions, or escalation in external pressures that could prompt a vacancy under Article 111 procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$24,010,927End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes established a baseline of institutional continuity.** Persistent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and limited public visibility since then, including his absence from major events, have fueled speculation about his capacity, with August 2026 statements from Iranian officials affirming meetings and good health while Israeli media highlighted concerns. Ongoing conflict dynamics, military command reshuffles ordered by Mojtaba, and a temporary collective leadership structure under the constitution have reinforced trader consensus around stability, keeping implied probabilities of change by end-2026 in the 16-25% range and lower for nearer deadlines. Key near-term variables include any confirmed health updates, Assembly of Experts actions, or escalation in external pressures that could prompt a vacancy under Article 111 procedures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,010,927End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February US-Israeli strikes established a baseline of institutional continuity.** Persistent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and limited public visibility since then, including his absence from major events, have fueled speculation about his capacity, with August 2026 statements from Iranian officials affirming meetings and good health while Israeli media highlighted concerns. Ongoing conflict dynamics, military command reshuffles ordered by Mojtaba, and a temporary collective leadership structure under the constitution have reinforced trader consensus around stability, keeping implied probabilities of change by end-2026 in the 16-25% range and lower for nearer deadlines. Key near-term variables include any confirmed health updates, Assembly of Experts actions, or escalation in external pressures that could prompt a vacancy under Article 111 procedures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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