**Following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes during the early phase of the ongoing conflict, Iran's Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March 2026.** This marked the first leadership transition since 1989, executed rapidly under wartime pressure via the constitutional process involving a temporary three-member council (President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi) before the clerical vote. Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric with limited prior public office, has remained out of public view for six months amid reports of severe injuries sustained in the same attack that killed his father and other family members. Iranian officials maintain he retains ultimate authority from a secure location, delegating day-to-day functions to senior figures including IRGC commanders and cabinet members, while hardline elements have consolidated influence in military and security posts. The regime faces compounded pressures from the protracted war, economic strain, fuel shortages, and sporadic domestic protests, with ongoing diplomatic efforts focused on the Strait of Hormuz and potential negotiations. These dynamics, alongside questions over Mojtaba's effective capacity and any future health or stability developments, shape assessments of additional leadership shifts or institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,250,782 Vol.
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
11%
December 31
17%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,250,782 Vol.
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
11%
December 31
17%
June 30, 2027
25%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**Following the February 28, 2026, assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli strikes during the early phase of the ongoing conflict, Iran's Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March 2026.** This marked the first leadership transition since 1989, executed rapidly under wartime pressure via the constitutional process involving a temporary three-member council (President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, and cleric Alireza Arafi) before the clerical vote. Mojtaba, a mid-ranking cleric with limited prior public office, has remained out of public view for six months amid reports of severe injuries sustained in the same attack that killed his father and other family members. Iranian officials maintain he retains ultimate authority from a secure location, delegating day-to-day functions to senior figures including IRGC commanders and cabinet members, while hardline elements have consolidated influence in military and security posts. The regime faces compounded pressures from the protracted war, economic strain, fuel shortages, and sporadic domestic protests, with ongoing diplomatic efforts focused on the Strait of Hormuz and potential negotiations. These dynamics, alongside questions over Mojtaba's effective capacity and any future health or stability developments, shape assessments of additional leadership shifts or institutional continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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