HNK Rijeka holds the strongest position at 59.5% implied probability in the HNL matchup at ŠRC Velika Gorica, driven by superior squad depth, consistent historical dominance over Gorica (winning eight of the last ten meetings), and a better early-season points haul despite their recent Conference League exit to Midtjylland. Gorica sits winless at the bottom of the table after four straight defeats, with ongoing defensive vulnerabilities and limited attacking output that caps their win probability near 14%. The draw sits at 23.5% as both sides prioritize early points in a low-scoring rivalry where Rijeka has frequently controlled possession and closed out results on the road. Trader consensus reflects Rijeka’s edge in form, head-to-head records, and overall quality against a struggling home side.