Persistent late-August heat across the Southwest and South has driven numerous daily temperature records at US stations, with Phoenix, the Coachella Valley, El Paso, and parts of Florida seeing highs that broke or tied date-specific marks amid highs near or above 115°F. These conditions reflect continued high-pressure patterns and above-normal temperatures through much of the month, though all-time station highs remain harder to surpass than daily or monthly benchmarks. Trader consensus favoring 101-150 records implies a moderate tally of new historical extremes by month-end, consistent with the pattern of widespread but not unprecedented warmth; lower bins like 0-20 gain support if verification shows most breaks limited to shorter-term records. Cooling expected into early September limits further upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
0-20 21%
21-60 17%
151+ 6%
61-100 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
25%
21-60
18%
61-100
7%
101-150
41%
151+
6%
0-20 21%
21-60 17%
151+ 6%
61-100 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$204 Vol.
25%
21-60
$150 Vol.
18%
61-100
$86 Vol.
7%
101-150
$59 Vol.
41%
151+
$100 Vol.
6%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent late-August heat across the Southwest and South has driven numerous daily temperature records at US stations, with Phoenix, the Coachella Valley, El Paso, and parts of Florida seeing highs that broke or tied date-specific marks amid highs near or above 115°F. These conditions reflect continued high-pressure patterns and above-normal temperatures through much of the month, though all-time station highs remain harder to surpass than daily or monthly benchmarks. Trader consensus favoring 101-150 records implies a moderate tally of new historical extremes by month-end, consistent with the pattern of widespread but not unprecedented warmth; lower bins like 0-20 gain support if verification shows most breaks limited to shorter-term records. Cooling expected into early September limits further upside.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$600End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Persistent late-August heat across the Southwest and South has driven numerous daily temperature records at US stations, with Phoenix, the Coachella Valley, El Paso, and parts of Florida seeing highs that broke or tied date-specific marks amid highs near or above 115°F. These conditions reflect continued high-pressure patterns and above-normal temperatures through much of the month, though all-time station highs remain harder to surpass than daily or monthly benchmarks. Trader consensus favoring 101-150 records implies a moderate tally of new historical extremes by month-end, consistent with the pattern of widespread but not unprecedented warmth; lower bins like 0-20 gain support if verification shows most breaks limited to shorter-term records. Cooling expected into early September limits further upside.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Volume
$600End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-August heat across the Southwest and South has driven numerous daily temperature records at US stations, with Phoenix, the Coachella Valley, El Paso, and parts of Florida seeing highs that broke or tied date-specific marks amid highs near or above 115°F. These conditions reflect continued high-pressure patterns and above-normal temperatures through much of the month, though all-time station highs remain harder to surpass than daily or monthly benchmarks. Trader consensus favoring 101-150 records implies a moderate tally of new historical extremes by month-end, consistent with the pattern of widespread but not unprecedented warmth; lower bins like 0-20 gain support if verification shows most breaks limited to shorter-term records. Cooling expected into early September limits further upside.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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